Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
422 FXUS62 KCAE 110857 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 457 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Upper trough passes north of the area throughout Friday. This trough is replaced by weak ridging this weekend, allowing temperatures to slowly rise with typical summertime showers and thunderstorms. The ridge breaks down early next week, leading to cooler temperatures and higher rain chances once again during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - A pretty typical summer day in store, hot with a few strong storms around. The mid-upper level trough is moving across the area overnight, with some widespread stratus developing thanks to abundant low level moisture. As this trough pivots through, mid-level winds will turn out of the west by later this morning and some weak subsidence and subtle dry advection aloft should develop for the afternoon. PWAT`s however will remain quite high, between 1.75-2.0" for most of the area. So overall, these will blend together to produce a pretty typical summer day with high temps in the 90`s and a handful of storms across the area. The severe thunderstorm threat should be fairly limited, given the only 1000-1500 ML CAPE, but some increasing DCAPE thanks to the westerly flow aloft could still yield some gusty winds in the storms that do develop today. So a more quality over quantity with regards to the severe threat today, quite the opposite to the last few days. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Hot and humid conditions through the period. Heat Indices on Sunday and Monday should reach the 100 to 105 degree range. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each day. Probabilities appear to be lowest on Sunday. Weak upper ridging will be in place during the short term which should aid in suppressing convection each day. Having said that, there will be adequate moisture in place resulting in diurnally driven isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Hot and humid conditions are expected with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s, combining with dewpoints in the 70s to produce heat index values in the 100 to 105 degree range, particularly on Sunday and Monday. Will monitor trends as there is the potential for some locations to approach Heat Advisory criteria, especially on Monday. However, this will ultimately depend on convective coverage, which could be a bit higher on Monday as the upper ridge begins to weaken. Regardless of formal criteria being met in our FA, proper precautions should be taken while outdoors during peak heating Saturday through Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - Upper ridging breaks down into the mid-week, bringing near normal temperatures and increased rain chances. A more typical summertime pattern is expected during the extended. The upper ridging weakens during the middle of next week as an area of low pressure approaches the Bahamas. This should result in more seasonable daytime temperatures and increased rain chances during the long term. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening but will once again be pulse in nature given the overall lack of dynamic support. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Stratus expected through Friday morning with IFR-LIFR conditions. Some isolated storms expected this afternoon-evening. Following yesterday`s rainfall, some widespread stratus will steadily develop overnight with IFR or LIFR conditions lingering into Friday morning. The edge of the stratus deck has remained northwest of OGB overnight, but will likely sink south far enough later this morning. TAF sites should return to VFR by around 1500z this morning. Westerly winds, 6-10 knots, and typical summer cu will develop by the early afternoon. A few storms are expected across the area this afternoon, far less widespread than Wed- Thursday, but enough to still warrant a prob30 mention for the time being. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this week with the potential for periodic restrictions. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...