733
FXUS62 KCAE 050625
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
225 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases across the Southeast through mid week leading
to scattered convection each afternoon. A cold front will move
across the Southeast Thursday increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Drier air follows the front late this week into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Widespread convection from earlier this afternoon has stabilized
the majority of the forecast area, with some instability left
across the CSRA and far western midlands where storms didn`t
really develop earlier today. Storms have picked up intensity a
bit across this area in the past hour or so as a weakly
organized line of convection approaches ahead of a remnant
MCV/shortwave from previous convection across the lower MS
Valley. Expecting some of these showers/storms to remain in
tact as we head into the overnight hours tonight, but they
should slowly weaken and diminish in coverage and intensity.
Cloud cover will likely hang around for much or all of the
night, and with moisture rich low-levels, expect lows to only
fall into the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A few isolated showers or thunderstorms may still linger
Wednesday morning, but the activity is expected to increase as
we head into the afternoon as another shortwave disturbance
moves across the region. Expect coverage to be similar or even
higher than today as PWATs are expected to be around 1.75"
Wednesday afternoon. Activity is anticipated to wane overnight
ahead of another round of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.
A cold front moving toward the region will aid in keeping the
PWATs elevated ahead of it, allowing scattered showers and
storms again in the afternoon and evening. The severe threat
for both days is minimal; however, a few of the stronger cells
could produce wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph, especially on
Thursday. The cold front is anticipated to move through the
region late Thursday night/early Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
After the front passes, drier air is expected to move in behind
it. That said there could be an isolated shower or storm over
the eastern portions of the forecast area on Friday, depending
on exactly where the front is located. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected for the weekend ahead of more activity
possible early for the week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast
period outside of showers or thunderstorms and possible morning
stratus.

Diminishing showers continue to slowly move through the region
early this morning and may impact the terminals but not
expecting restrictions in rainfall as it remains light. Cigs
also remain VFR in the 5kft to 12kft range. Some stratus already
developing in the Upstate and north GA with NBM and LAMP
guidance suggesting this stratus will build eastward but
uncertain if it will make it to the terminals or not. Decided to
include a tempo for MVFR cigs around 1500 ft from 09z-13z with
possible IFR vsbys in fog at AGS where recent rain may enhance
fog threat, despite a 20 knot low level jet.

Otherwise, expect another day similar to yesterday with
afternoon scattered convection developing across the region with
southwesterly winds picking up to around 7 to 10 knots and
widespread cumulus clouds prior to convective initiation.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through Friday with intermittent
CIG/VSBY restrictions possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$