770
FXUS62 KCAE 220642
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the region through early Thursday
keeping fair and dry conditions in place along with warming
temperatures. A frontal boundary will approach the region
Thursday night and Friday and is expected to stall just north
of the area resulting in chances of showers and thunderstorms
Friday through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure continues to ridge over the area with some high
clouds moving into the CSRA. Some patchy fog may develop early
this morning, especially in the southeastern portion of the
forecast area and along rivers and lakes but will dissipate
shortly after sunrise. Upper level ridging will strengthen over
the area today with rising heights and subsidence aloft,
although upper level moisture will increase with some passing
high clouds over the area. With rising heights, expect
temperatures a few degrees warmer today than yesterday with
highs in the upper 80s and lows in the mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Zonal flow is forecast to take over on Thursday at the same
time as we begin to see an increase in low-level moisture across
the forecast area. Surface theta-e is forecast to climb to
340-345k across the area on the western side of the surface high
across the Atlantic, increase potential instability. However,
it still looks like a strong cap will remain in place and keep
storms at bay for most of the area. The GFS/NAM/LREF suite of
members do show a weak shortwave trough approaching by Thursday
evening. Thinking that this could break the cap in the northern
FA and spark an isolated to scattered storm across that area.
Bumped PoPs up to slight chance as a result of this. LREF
probabilities of >0.01" of rain in the period are 20-30%, which
support the idea that, while not widespread, some precip is
definitely possible with this shortwave. Highs will likely be in
the lower 90s on Thursday, with overnight lows in the upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fairly high confidence in the general pattern in the long term.
LREF member means and operational models are in fairly good
agreement showing zonal flow continuing through early next
week, with multiple robust shortwaves progressing through the
flow in the long term period. At the surface, rich BL moisture
characterized by high theta-e, PWs 125-130% of normal, and
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 will be in place. This
is forecast to all sit southward of a slow moving surface front
that should approach on Friday and become diffuse or weak around
the area into the weekend. Combine all of this with seasonally
warm temps in the low 90s and the stage is set for a fitting
start to the summer season and Memorial Day Weekend. So look for
highs to be 90-95F each day through early next week, with
chances for storms each afternoon as well. Given the strength of
some of these shortwaves combined with the rich low-level
moisture that is expected and there is a chance that strong
storms become a possibility each afternoon. The mesoscale
details will be important, so stay abreast of the forecast
especially if you have outdoor plans this weekend. For what its
worth, the CSU ML Probabilities are showing elevated severe
probabilities at this range on Sat/Sun/Mon, so it will be worth
watching this weekend. A more developed system and front look
likely to push in and through the region by the middle of next
week, which could cool us down if the front actually
materializes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected for most of the TAF period with some
visibility restrictions early this morning at fog-prone
locations.

Clear skies at all the terminals early this morning with some
high cloudiness streaming in from the west. AGS and OGB likely
will observe visibility restrictions before dawn with low level
moisture slightly higher and a subsidence inversion aloft. While
conditions are expected to mostly remain MVFR, there is a chance
for tempo IFR visibilities. Shortly after sunrise, any fog will
quickly dissipate with VFR conditions expected for the rest of
the period with SW winds around 5 knots and possibly a few
cumulus clouds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant flight restrictions
are currently anticipated through Thursday outside of brief
morning fog. Low probability of restrictions during the late
week period into the weekend from afternoon and evening
convection.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$