247
FXUS62 KCAE 060806
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
406 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the Southeast from late tonight
to early Friday leading to showers and thunderstorms. Drier air
follows the front late this week into the weekend. Another cold
front possible early next week, with rain potential increasing
ahead of it late in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front will approach the region today with warm, moist
advection prior to it crossing the forecast area tonight. GOES16
derived PWAT values show 1.75 to 1.9 inches over the Deep
South. A pre-frontal trough will provide convergence for
convection to develop this afternoon in the conditionally
unstable airmass. A shortwave will also move over the area this
afternoon, supporting convective development. Mixed layer CAPE
values are likely to be between 1000 to 2000 J/kg based on SPC
SREF probabilities. With moderate instability, above normal
atmospheric moisture and upper support from a shortwave trough
we would expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop
in the afternoon. An inverted V sounding also indicates some
potential for damaging downburst winds with DCAPE values around
750 J/kg. With very weak deep layer shear the biggest concern is
isolated downburst winds from pulse type storms and potentially
localized flash flooding. Convection should linger overnight as
the front works its way through the region. Highs today will be
in the upper 80s to mid 90s with lows tonight around 70
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will see the cold front moving east of the cwa, allowing
drier air to move back into the region. After the past few days
of rainfall, a return to drier weather will occur through this
period of the forecast as high pressure settles into the area.
With the expected sunshine, highs during the afternoon are still
expected to reach the upper 80s to the lower 90s both days.
Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday a cold front will begin moving towards the region from
the north. Although the day will start off dry, increasing
moisture may allow at least some isolated showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures become a little bit warmer ahead of the front,
with highs in lower to mid 90s. The front may end up stalling
somewhere across the area early next week. This will end up
keeping at least some scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms through the middle of the week. There is some
uncertainty with afternoon temperatures too, due to the
potential mixture of clouds and sun, rainfall, and eventual
position of the front. For now most guidance keeps readings
closeto or just above normal early next week.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Guidance has been persistent showing ceiling restrictions this
morning with the HRRR, NBM, and RAP guidance all indicating
1500-2000 kft stratus at the Columbia sites. Thinking this is
reasonable given the subsidence behind the shortwave trough.
CAE/CUB are most likely to see it develop but we can`t rule it
out at the other sites either.

A cold front will approach the region today. Expect scattered
convection ahead of the front, beginning in the afternoon. It
will also be gusty at times with winds gusting to 20 to 25 kts
out of the SW. Convection will likely continue into the evening
as the front works its way through early Friday morning. There
may be another period of ceiling restrictions tonight before the
front moves east of the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier weather Friday through the
weekend. Moisture increases early next week which may lead to
early morning fog or stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$