285
FXUS62 KCAE 130015
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
815 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build over the area from the north,
allowing dry conditions to persist through Friday. Moisture
will begin increasing slightly by Sunday, with isolated showers
and thunderstorms returning to the forecast into next week. Hot
temperatures are expected throughout much of the forecast
period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Forecast soundings indicating dry air continues in the mid and
low levels across the area. There was a break in cloudiness
early this evening, especially across the Midlands, but as a
shortwave pivots through Georgia, expect clouds to increase over
the next several hours. With this increased cloudiness, expect
temperatures a few degrees warmer tonight compared to last
night, with lows generally in the mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper pattern will consist of an upper trough moving north of
the region, then deepening as it moves towards the Atlantic
coastline. Further west, an area of high pressure situated
across the southern plains and northern Mexico will begin to
push eastward. In general, our upper pattern will see our winds
turning from westerly early in the period, to more
northwesterly. At the surface, a stalled surface front remains
well south of the region, while another cold front should begin
approaching from the north late Friday night. Dry conditions
will continue each day though, with maybe some sea-breeze
showers possible just east of the cwa each day. Temperatures
Thursday will reach to around 90, then expected to rise into the
middle 90s for Friday as the upper ridge off to the west begins
building eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For Saturday a diffuse cold front should be moving towards the
cwa through the day. Ahead of this front, the upper ridge that
has been off to our west will be strengthening into the cwa. The
strength of this ridge should be enough to keep conditions ahead
of the weak front dry but hot. The front should stall out
somewhere across the southern cwa, or just south of that into
Sunday. Rainfall chances into next week will depend on the
strength of the developing capping inversion each afternoon.
Best day for activity appears to be Sunday before the mid-level
cap begins to strengthen into next week. Higher concerns will
exist for afternoon high temperatures, where readings in the mid
to upper 90s, and possible even at 100. Airmass may remain dry
enough to keep afternoon heat index values below any advisory
criteria. Even so, continue to urge caution for those outdoors
to take frequent breaks and hydrate well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions should persist through the 24 hours TAF period. SCT-
BKN cumulus AOA 4kft MSL should diminish this evening, with SCT-BKN
mid and high level clouds continuing into Thursday. These thicker
clouds tonight should prevent the development of low stratus and
fog. SFC winds light and variable to calm overnight, increasing
out of the northeast on Thursday at 5-10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are expected
through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday
and Monday but current confidence on restrictions is low.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$