Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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538 FXUS62 KCAE 052357 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 757 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak upper disturbance moving through the region will continue to generate scattered thunderstorms through early tonight. A cold front will move across the Southeast Thursday increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Drier air follows the front late this week into the weekend. Another cold front possible early next week, with rain potential increasing ahead of it late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... A couple lines of showers and thunderstorms have marched across the forecast area this afternoon and evening with convective intensity finally weakening. Ongoing convection moving through the western Midlands is associated with a short wave and will continue generating some convection due to the enhanced dynamics aloft. Most areas have already had one or two rounds of convection cross the area which has greatly reduced temperatures and stabilized the atmosphere so expect the convective intensity through the remainder of the evening and overnight to remain weak. Overnight there will be limited instability so outflow boundaries which intersect could generate some new cells. With debris cloudiness expected for most of the night overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A positively tilted upper trough is forecast to be located over the Southeast Thursday morning. At the surface, a cold front that is associated with an upper low over the Great Lakes is anticipated to be near the Tennessee River Valley in the morning. Both of these features are forecast to move eastward through the day, bringing the chance for another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area after a lull in the action in the morning. Latest hi-res guidance continues a downward trend in the precipitation chances through the day. However, I suspect there will be remnant boundaries from the convection that occurs today, which could be triggers for development. So, still think there`s a medium chance (30-50%) of showers and storms to develop. PWATs are expected to remain high ahead of the cold front, leading to the potential for heavy downpours at times. Forecast soundings show that the temperature will likely be an inverted V, which is indicative of a threat for strong winds. While the severe threat overall is low for any storms Thursday, some of the stronger storms could produce some stronger winds (>40 mph) and small hail. The cold front is expected to pass through the area during the overnight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Drier air is expected to be ushered in behind the cold front for Friday and through at least the first half of the weekend, which leads to high confidence (80%) in fair weather for Friday and Saturday. Some uncertainty begins to settle into the forecast beginning on Sunday into early next week as models indicate a front is forecast to slide south, bringing some chances for more rain. There are some significant differences in the model solutions with this feature as well as an upper level low, resulting in low confidence in the forecast at this point. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected over the 24 hr forecast period outside of showers or thunderstorms and possible morning stratus. Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to slowly work across the forecast area, impacting the TAF sites on their way. Showers are expected to diminish across the Augusta TAF sites over the next hour, with more approaching the Orangeburg site over the next couple hours. Any heavier shower or storm will be capable of brief visibility restrictions, with the most likely site to see this being OGB. These should continue to push eastward as the evening progresses with more stable air settling in after 03z and diminishing coverage. The shortwave driving this is expected to slowly push across the area and make for an interesting forecast tonight. Guidance is much more bullish on ceiling restrictions later tonight behind this feature, with HRRR, NBM, and RAP guidance all forecasting 1500-2000 kft stratus at the Columbia sites. Thinking this is reasonable given the subsidence behind the shortwave trough; though, it isn`t a home run forecast. CAE/CUB are most likely to see it develop but can`t rule it out anywhere else. It should remain stratus, with the usual caveat that AGS is a fog prone site, as a strong low- level jet is likely to develop again tonight. As we get into the day on Thursday, a cold front will approach and winds are expected to get fairly gusty by the afternoon hours. Expect another round of showers and storms to potentially develop ahead of this. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through Thursday with intermittent CIG/VSBY restrictions possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...