Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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635 FXUS62 KCHS 062013 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 413 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move through Friday morning. High pressure returns for the weekend, then another cold front will move through Monday. High pressure will build back in behind the front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Rest of this Afternoon: Quiet weather will persist into this afternoon across the forecast area as lingering subsidence from weak ridging aloft remains over the region. A cold front to the west will approach the region this evening and into tonight, increasing precipitation chances. Most Hi-Res guidance suggests that the bulk of the precipitation should be over southeastern South Carolina, mainly in the 9 PM to 3 AM time frame. While the severe thunderstorm risk is expected to be low, there is a low end chance for a damaging wind gust with model soundings showing around 800 J/kg of DCAPE. Any showers/tstorms should push off the coast by daybreak Friday. With increasing cloud cover and precipitation chances overnight, low temperatures will remain quiet mild with mid 70s along the coastal counties and low 70s inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... An elongated axis of upper level low pressure will build across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes and New England region during the first part of the near term with low amplitude troughing pressing down through the Mid Atlantic and southeast states. Surface boundary is still looking to gradually slip down through the region during the course of day Friday and will knock temperatures down a few degrees from where we have been the last few. But the more noticeable impact will be lower dewpoint/drier air gradually spreading into the southeast region through the course of the day. Precip chances look minimal, although there could be a few pop-up showers along the boundary Friday afternoon particularly across parts of southeast Georgia where higher dewpoint air/instability is expected to reside - although that will depend on just where the boundary ends up at that time. With drier air/minimal instability across the region, Saturday and Sunday look quiet at this juncture. But temperatures will continue to run warm/above normal through the weekend with highs warming into the lower to middle 90s each day...a good 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early June. Overnight lows through the period will range through the 60s overall, to the lower/middle 70s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low amplitude ridging is looking spread out along the Gulf Coast region through the first part of next week with warmer/higher dewpoint air again edging back through the southeast states. Along with several weak disturbances rippling through the region, daytime shower/thunderstorm chances are looking to return during the first half of the week. A stronger/better organized upper level trough may advance through the Gulf Coast and southeast region during the middle and latter half of next week bringing higher precip chances, although longer term guidance solutions do show a fair amount of spread during that time frame. Temperatures will continue to run above normal through the period overall, but we could see a bit of a cooldown mid to late week...depending on how the pattern evolves. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will mostly prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Friday. Most of the day is expected to be dry and the best chance for thunderstorms will come this evening, mainly at KCHS and KJZI. We have added in VCTS from 01-04z at these sites, but left any mention out of KSAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .MARINE... Tonight: Winds overnight will surge slightly as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds around 15 knots will be common, with 15-20 knots possible for a period of time in the outer Georgia waters and the Charleston County waters. Seas should average 3-4 feet overnight. Friday through Monday: Southerly flow early Friday will veer westerly Friday night and northerly on Saturday behind a cold front. However, the pattern quickly reverts back to the typical southerly/ southwesterly flow later in the weekend into early next week. Winds will continue to run 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CPM SHORT TERM...Adam LONG TERM...Adam AVIATION...Adam/CPM MARINE...Adam/CPM