022
FXUS62 KCHS 290212
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1012 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will shift offshore tonight. High pressure will
build in from the west mid to late week, passing overhead and
then offshore over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Tonight: The 00Z KCHS sounding shows a drier environment
compared to 24 hours ago, with a deep west-northwest flow
throughout. There`s a weak inversion around 11-12K feet, and the
average RH from the surface to that inversion is 60-65%. Above
there it is completely dry, which is well depicted by Water
Vapor satellite images.

The stationary front is starting to transition into a
cold front, found near the immediate coast late Tuesday. The
front will push further out to sea, as strong high pressure in
the Upper Mississippi Valley starts to build southeast. Skies
will be mainly clear, and with winds becoming light northwest,
or in some areas calm, we expect lows to get down to the lower
and middle 60s far inland, upper 60s over much of the coastal
counties, except lower 70s at and near the coast. These lows are
right near normal for late May.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Zonal flow aloft prevails Wednesday into Thursday before an H5
shortwave dips toward the area from the north late Thursday into
Friday. At the surface, troughing persists offshore as high
pressure centered over the Great Lakes builds in from the west
Wednesday and Thursday. A very weak front will cross the area
Friday as the high shifts more over the Northeast and ridges
down the coast. Expect dry and warm conditions to prevail
Wednesday and Thursday under the strong subsidence aloft.
Thursday night and Friday are less certain as modest moisture
pooling ahead of the approaching front and modest lift ahead of
the approaching shortwave could coincide just enough to initiate
some showers and storms sometime Friday morning through
afternoon. Have expanded the slight chance POPs some Friday,
mainly near the coast, but overall expect moisture to be too
limited for much coverage, and mainly dry conditions still on
tap for Friday with temps trending closer to normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high builds in stronger Saturday and Sunday, then
pushes offshore early next week as a series of weak disturbances
possibly pass through. The weekend is trending drier with very
limited low level moisture available, then have trended toward a
more summerlike pattern for early next week, with storm chances
mainly along and inland of the sea breeze following a diurnal
pattern. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of climo
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 00Z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A stationary front meandering along our coast is
finally starting to transition into a cold front, that will
eventually move further offshore and away from our area. The
periphery of broad continental high pressure will then build
into our region. SW winds will steadily veer around to the W
and then the NW with time, generally at 15 kt or less. Seas will
be 2-3 ft throughout.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns anticipated
midweek through the weekend with light to moderate winds
prevailing as high pressure builds in from the west through
Friday, shifting over the Southeast coast for the weekend.
Minimal income swell will keep seas around 2 ft or less through
Friday, with seas increasing to 2-4 ft over the weekend with the
introduction of medium period northeast swell.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...
MARINE...