105
FXUS62 KCHS 110621
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
221 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the area tonight. High pressure
will prevail for the weekend into early next week. A storm
system could affect the area by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A cold front will continue to progress south across parts of Georgia
late, favoring weak cold air advection and pressure rises across the
area through daybreak. Dry air along and post fropa will maintain
rainfree conditions locally for the remainder of the night. Despite
cold air advection, clear skies will still allow winds to become
light, especially inland. Low temps will be noticeably cooler than
the previous night with the change of airmass in place. In general,
lows should range in the mid 50s inland to low-mid 60s near the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday and Sunday: A stout northwest flow will dominate aloft
as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Quiet, dry
conditions will prevail with forecast soundings showing modest
capping aloft with low net moisture values (PWATs <1"). A modest
west/northwest flow atop the boundary layer should delay/pin
the afternoon resultant sea breeze both afternoons. Low-level
thickness values support highs in the upper 70s/near 80 on
Saturday warming into the lower 80s on Sunday. Lows Saturday
night will drop into the mid- upper 50s inland with mid 60s at
the beaches with upper 50s/lower 60s inland and upper 60s/near
70 at the beaches Sunday night.

Monday: A warm front will begin to organize to the south and
move north into the area as a storm system develops to the west.
Isolated to scattered showers/tstms could develop near this
feature in the afternoon, but the bulk of anything meaningful
looks to remain south of the Altamaha River. Forecast soundings
north of the warm front are not overly unstable with meager
MLCAPE, positive LI`s with K- indices <30C noted, so conditions
do not look overly favorable for deep convection despite highs
warming into the upper 70s/lower 80s. Pops 20-30% look
reasonable during this time with any mention of thunder being
confined to mainly Southeast Georgia due to some uncertainty on
location/timing of the developing warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday Night and Tuesday: Rain chances will increase Monday
night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north and the region
becomes fully embedded within the warm sector of an approaching
storm system. Modest forcing for ascent ahead of a number of
southern stream impulses embedded ahead of a shortwave that digs
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will steadily increase
within an increasingly moist environment. There are a few model
signals that a large convective complex along the northeast Gulf
coast/Florida Panhandle could disrupt moisture transport into
the area which could limit the amount of convection over
Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia Tuesday. These
trends will have to be watched carefully. For now, a blend of
the NBM with the drier SuperBlend consensus was used to
construct pops. Pops 60-70% were highlighted for Monday night
with 80% pops for Tuesday. Lows Monday night will range from the
lower 60s well inland to the lower 70s at the beaches. Highs
Tuesday will warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s, limited by
extensive cloud cover and showers/tstms.

Wednesday and Thursday: Overall, rain chances will be lower for
Wednesday into Thursday, but some degree of convection can be
expected as a series of weak fronts/troughs move through the
Southeast States. Chance pops were highlighted during this time.
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06Z
Sunday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms could
bring flight restrictions to the terminals Monday afternoon into
the middle of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A cold front will continue to push south across Georgia
waters late, resulting in weak cold air advection and pressure rises
across local waters through daybreak. The setup favors a temporary
surge of northerly winds up to around 15-20 kt, remaining just below
Small Craft Advisory levels across all waters. Seas will range
between 2-4 ft, highest across northern South Carolina waters off
the Charleston County coast and across offshore Georgia waters.

Saturday through Wednesday: There are no concerns through
Monday. The risk for Small Craft Advisory conditions will
increase Monday night into Tuesday as a warm front lifts north
and storm system approaches from the west.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB