143
FXUS61 KCLE 081729
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
129 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and cold front will move east across the
Great Lakes tonight. Another secondary cold front will move
through Sunday night. High pressure will build back in across the
region Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1230 PM Update...
The wind forecast was updated this afternoon to reflect the
gusty winds being observed across the area from the southwest.
With limited cloud cover up to this point, have opted to
increase the overall high temperature a degree or two for today,
although wouldn`t be surprised to see some spots in the western
counties touch 80. Aside from that, no other changes were needed
with this update.

930 AM Update...
Slight adjustments were made to temperatures as current
observations suggest a quicker warm up this morning than
previously forecast. Aside from that, no other changes were
needed with this update.

630 am update...
The ongoing forecast is currently on track and no adjustments
were needed at this time.

Previous discussion...
High pressure is over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Appalachian
Region this morning. A light southwesterly flow has already
returned and will increase later today. There will be plenty of
sunshine today but high level cloudiness will increase from the
west later in the day. High temperatures will range from the
lower 70s out in NWPA and the upper 70s over NEOH and NWOH.

Another shortwave trough will move across the Great Lakes region
tonight. A weak cold front will slide southward across the
Great Lakes region and through our area later tonight. Scattered
rain showers will move in later this evening and overnight with
the cold front with the rain chances ending early Sunday
morning over the eastern CWA. A small and weak area of high
pressure will move across the region on Sunday along with breezy
conditions. Temperatures on Sunday will be just a couple degrees
cooler in the upper 60s in NWPA and lower 70w in NEOH. Mid to
upper 70s are expected in NWOH Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Expansive upper trough with multiple embedded shortwaves will
continue to impact the Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday
evening. Broad northwest flow will lead to cooler than normal
temperatures with lake enhanced rain showers across Northeast Ohio
and Northwest Pennsylvania through the first part of the short term
period. By Tuesday, high pressure over the Upper Midwest will build
east toward the Eastern Great Lakes and bring dry weather.

Temperatures will be below normal through the short term period
under northwest flow and broad CAA. Overnight lows Sunday through
Tuesday night settle in the low to mid 50s. Cool high temperatures
in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees on Monday will rise into the
low/mid 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly dry weather expected through the long term period with
warming temperatures. Next chance for precipitation will come near
the end of the period as a cold front swings east across the region
Thursday night into Friday. High temperatures in the low 80s
Wednesday rise into the upper 80s by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the evening with southwest
winds of 5-12 knots, occasionally gusting near 20 knots,
especially for terminals along the lakeshore. Tonight, a cold
front associated with an upper level trough pivoting over the
area will bring the chance of showers from west to east
beginning near 02Z Sunday for KTOL and KFDY. With this line of
showers, both ceilings and visibilities are expected to diminish
to MVFR with winds gradually shifting to become northwesterly
at 5-10 knots behind the boundary. Once this system departing to
the east on Sunday, VFR conditions will return. Near the tale
end of this period, winds from the northwest will begin to ramp
up to 10-15 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots. The strongest winds
will be after this TAF period, but found it worth noting now.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers early
Sunday morning. Non-VFR ceilings may return Sunday night into
Monday as a weak boundary moves across the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest flow 15-20 knots gradually turns southwesterly while
subsiding to 10-15 knots by late this morning. We`ll see a lull in
higher wind speeds through today as brief mid level ridging builds
over the lake from the south. By this evening and early Sunday
morning, a weak low and accompanying trough will swing across the
lake bringing our next period for marine headlines. Winds quickly
turn northwesterly while increasing to 15-20 knots late tonight as
the low crosses. Onshore flow will allow for wave heights to build
to 2 to 4 feet. A secondary cold front will swing across the lake
Sunday afternoon with increased wind speeds and wave heights
persisting through the end of the weekend and beginning of next
week. High pressure centered over the Upper Midwest will build
eastward by Monday night and will allow for winds to subside to 10
knots or less through the middle of next week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Iverson