828
FXUS61 KCLE 130104
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
904 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will continue to slowly move east
through Thursday. A cold front will cross the area on Thursday
night into Friday. High pressure will return to the region for
Friday and Saturday before moving east and allowing a warm front
across the area on Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
9:00PM Update...
Minor changes were made to the temperature forecast. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure across the region will allow for
dry weather tonight into Thursday. Clouds are falling apart this
afternoon with dry air and good mixing across the region.
Cirrus from convection in the Upper Midwest will move east
toward the area tonight, but the trends are that clouds may stay
north and therefore, the region may stay clear and decouple,
allowing for temperatures cooler than previously forecasted with
lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Clearing and warm advection
will allow for temperatures to soar on Thursday with a mix of
80s to lower 90s. A cold front will approach the region on
Thursday night and will allow for rain and storm chances. The
trend in the front is slower than previous forecast cycles and
the bulk of the rain may not enter the forecast area until after
Midnight. The slower progression of the system will also hinder
the strength of convection across the forecast area as the area
will become more stable and the best forcing and shear may be
well further west into Illinois/Indiana, where storms will be
likely to fire earlier in the evening and with some severe
potential. Given the conditional thermodynamic environment, the
Day 2 Marginal SPC Outlook for the Toledo Metro remains valid
and on the condition of storms getting going in southern Lower
Michigan and continuing southeast into the forecast area late
Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday will be the start of the last seasonably cool days that we
will see for quite awhile as a mid/upper trough digs across the
Great Lakes in response to broad mid/upper ridging expanding across
the Rockies and Plains. The associated cold front will progress
south and east of the region Friday morning as the surface low lifts
into the Canadian Maritimes allowing surface high pressure to build
southward from the central Great Lakes in the afternoon. Expect a
few lingering showers to move out rather quickly Friday morning
before skies become mostly sunny in the afternoon. The broad surface
high will remain centered over the central Great Lakes Friday night
and Saturday before beginning to reposition over the eastern Great
Lakes Saturday night as the broad mid/upper ridge upstream migrates
deeper into the Plains and Midwest, causing the mid/upper trough
axis to shift into New England. This will keep conditions mostly
clear and pleasantly cool for outdoor activities through Saturday.

Highs Friday will range from the mid/upper 70s in north central and
NE Ohio and NW PA to the low/mid 80s in NW Ohio, with mid 70s to low
80s areawide Saturday. Lows Friday night and Saturday night will
generally range from the low to upper 50s. One last stretch without
air conditioning!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The large/broad mid/upper ridge will expand into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley Sunday through Monday as a mid/upper trough and
associated closed low deepens over the Pacific Northwest setting up
an impressively amplified longwave pattern. Deterministic and
ensemble guidance are coming into agreement on H5 heights above 590
DAM by Monday, and the deterministic ECMWF continues to be most
impressive with H5 heights around 594 DAM and 850 mb temps around 22
C. Leaning toward the stronger ridge given the increasingly dry
pattern over the past few weeks (rainfall has been hit and miss), so
highs in the middle 90s are a good bet Monday. Too early to think
about potential heat headlines since we don`t yet know how
effectively afternoon dew points will mix down, and there is still
room for a flatter ridge bringing convective debris clouds into the
region at times from the north, but with dew points at least
expected to be in the mid 60s much of the time, we could get close
to heat advisory criteria early next week. This will especially be
true if the highs in the mid/upper 90s seen in the deterministic
ECMWF and raw NBM verify. Will keep a mention in the HWO for now.

For Tuesday through Wednesday, the strong mid/upper ridge looks to
hold firmly over the eastern CONUS, but moisture advection will be
increasing as the mid/upper trough/closed low ejects through the
northern Plains. Such a strong ridge will be slow to break down, so
do not expect widespread showers and thunderstorms, but with the
increasing moisture and instability, coverage of diurnal convection
will increase a bit each afternoon which may keep temps a bit
cooler.

Highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Sunday will warm into the low/mid 90s
Monday with upper 90s possible in NW Ohio. Highs will generally be
in the low/mid 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows each night will
mostly stay in the 70s with muggy conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions are be expected across the airspace through the
TAF period. High pressure will continue east and southwest flow
will continue through the TAF period. Some cirrus clouds will
enter tonight and may continue into Thursday but conditions will
favor clear. Winds may pick up during the afternoon with gusts
of 20 to 25 kt possible. The pressure gradient across the region
will largely prohibit a lake breeze on Thursday. A decaying line
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to approach from the
northwest, reaching KTOL right around the end of the TAF period
at 00Z and other TAF sites later Thursday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie over the next 5 days. SW
winds will increase a bit to 10-15 knots tonight and Thursday before
turning N to NW Friday behind a cold front with speeds still
averaging 10-15 knots. NE winds of 5-10 knots are then expected
Friday night through Saturday before turning E to SE at 10-15 knots
by Sunday and SW at 5-15 knots Sunday night and Monday as a warm
front lifts across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Garuckas