238
FXUS61 KCLE 112337
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
737 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure drifts through the eastern U.S. through Thursday.
A weak cold front crosses Thursday night into early Friday, with
strong high pressure returning for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
6:15 PM Update...
Made some minor changes to cloud cover through tonight.
Otherwise, forecast looks on track.

Previous Discussion...
Quiet but warmer weather persists
through Wednesday night. A shortwave glides through the
southern Great Lakes late tonight into early Wednesday but will
just bring some passing higher level clouds, with mostly sunny
skies returning Wednesday. Some patchy valley fog is possible
early Wednesday morning across interior Northwest PA. Coverage
of fog should be a bit less than early this morning. Lows
tonight will range from the 40s in some interior valleys from
extreme Northeast OH into Northwest PA to the mid-upper 50s west
of I-71. Highs on Wednesday will reach the low to mid 80s
across most of Ohio but will likely stay in the 70s from far
Northeast OH into Northwest PA. Lows Wednesday night will
generally be in the 60s, though a few outlying areas from
eastern OH into PA may dip into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
With high pressure to the east of the region, the forecast area will
be under strong warm advection ahead of a cold front on Thursday.
Temperatures will rise considerably into the 80s and even lower 90s
by Thursday afternoon. Dew points will rise a bit to around 60 and a
slight additional amount of moisture may allow for some scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop with a cold front Thursday
evening into Thursday night. Coverage will be problematic with the
lack of abundant moisture and poor diurnal timing, but will continue
the mid-range PoP across the area ahead of the frontal passage. Dry
weather and cooler temperatures will be expected for Friday with
northwest flow and high pressure across the area. A mix of 70s and
lower 80s will be expected for highs, which is slightly below normal
for mid-June.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The cooler, high pressure pattern from Friday will continue into
Saturday with the backside of a trough and northwest flow aloft.
Temperatures will continue on the cooler side of normal with 70s and
lower 80s. For Sunday and onward into next week, the heat will be on
across the forecast area as a strong upper ridge will build into the
region and allow for a considerably warmer air mass to quickly
enter. 850 mb temperatures of 18-20 C on Sunday will warm to 20-22 C
on Monday into Tuesday and allow for highs of 80s into 90s on Sunday
and then widespread 90s on Monday into Tuesday. The maximum
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday could rise further into the
upper bounds of 90s depending on how efficiently the area loses low-
level/surface moisture after any rain that occurs on Thursday night.
A period with dry and hot conditions will tend to brew more dry and
more hot conditions. Conversely, there is some spread on the other
end of things where the ridge may not be as strong and allow for
some overriding energy to flatten it out over the area. Therefore,
there could be some conditional convection across the area on Monday
and Tuesday, which may hinder temperatures from the near record
forecast. Still some time to see things through, but trends are warm
either way.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR expected through the TAF period. Patchy valley fog is
possible from extreme eastern OH into interior PA late tonight
into early Wednesday but is not expected to impact any TAF
sites.

Light northerly winds at generally 7 knots or less will shift
south at less than 7 knots tonight, increasing to 5 to 10 knots
out of the southwest during the day Wednesday. A light lake
breeze will make winds more westerly close to the Lake Erie
lakeshore during the afternoon for Cleveland and points east

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered showers Thursday night
into early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the region will slowly shift east through
Thursday and allow for light offshore flow for the next two days or
so. Instances of a lake breeze this evening and on Wednesday will
allow for brief windows of light onshore flow, but nothing atypical
for mid-June. A cold front will approach the lake for the second
half of Thursday and southwest winds will increase before shift to
the west then northwest behind the front Thursday night into Friday.
High pressure will enter the region for Friday and Saturday and
support light flow on the lake that will shift to the northeast on
Saturday then southeast by Sunday. No headlines are expected on the
lake at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Saunders/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...Saunders
MARINE...Sefcovic