166
FXUS61 KCLE 261953
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
353 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the Midwest will lift a warm front
into the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday. The
low will linger over eastern Ontario on Monday night into
Tuesday with another cold front being extended through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms extends from South Bend to
south of Columbus. Storms are beginning to enter a more
favorable environment for stronger convection with temperatures
across Ohio reaching the lower 80s, prompting SBCAPE values
above 3000 J/kg and DCAPE values of 1000 J/kg or higher.
Therefore, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for a
portion of the forecast area through 8 PM, as the leading line
of thunderstorms will enter Hancock to Knox County at around 4
PM and move northeast toward Lake Erie. The most concerning
portion of the line will be the leading edge entering Southwest
Ohio with bowing segments allowing for some stronger winds to
make it to the surface. There is some potential for a QLCS
tornado with this line but the 0-3 km wind shear values are
presently decreasing through northern Ohio so the tornado window
could be brief as the line enters the forecast area. However,
the main threat will be the damaging wind threat. For this
bowing threat further east, another Severe Thunderstorm Watch
has been issued for Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA, as the
thermodynamic environment is presenting most favorable for this
threat through 10 PM.

All indications that this line will continue northeast through
the forecast area and exit the far NW PA counties by Midnight.
So far, there has been rather robust clearing behind the main
line with a dominant cold pool and there should be a distinct
multi-hour break in rain and thunderstorms for the area
tonight. However, another round of more scattered convection
will generate and move into the region, once there is some
recovery. There will be better support further south and
southwest, where there will be a larger recovery window, and
storm coverage will be better outside of the forecast area.
However, there will be some synoptic lifting mechanisms with the
low to the northwest, cold front to the west, and the main
upper trough aloft that should allow for some more thunderstorms
to develop into the forecast area. Severe trends with these
storms will be substantially lower than this afternoon/evening.
Showers and storms will be possible through the first half of
Monday until the cold front passes through the forecast area.
The cold front will be through the forecast area on Monday night
and have the forecast trending to dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low centered over Quebec will continue to eject multiple
shortwave troughs across the region through the short term period.
These shortwaves will bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Best
support for thunderstorms will be diurnally driven as MLCAPE values
rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Highs on Tuesday rise into the lower 70s with overnight lows
settling in the lower 50s. Cooler on Wednesday behind a cold front
with highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much quieter and drier weather in store for the long term as upper
level ridging and surface high pressure build over the eastern
CONUS. We`ll be dry through the bulk of the forecast period with our
next chance for precipitation coming on Sunday as another shortwave
approaches the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will climb through
the long term with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Main concern for the TAF period is a line of thunderstorms
stretching from east of Chicago southeast to Cincinnati that is
moving northeast toward the airspace. Thunderstorms have a
history of strong winds with wind gusts to 50 kt possible and
non-VFR conditions, mostly to low MVFR and IFR, in the heaviest
rainfall. The line is moving in a general south-southwest to
north-northeast orientation and will take some time still to
reach the southwest terminals. Have timed in TS chances with a
broader VCTS window and a narrower TEMPO group to highlight the
best period for the strongest wind gusts and lowest prevailing
flight conditions. Behind the main line of storms there could be
some residual convection, however, there has been a fair amount
of clearing behind the line so far. Unfortunately, low pressure
sweeping through the region will allow for another round of
showers and storms to develop later tonight and may impact
terminals to a lesser extent overnight. Confidence in this
second round is a bit lower as coverage will be down a bit from
this main line this afternoon and evening. Ceilings will start
to fill in overnight to a prevailing MVFR and there will be
trends to some IFR for many locations of interior northern Ohio.
There will be a potential for showers and storms ahead of a
final cold front on Monday and this may be limited to NE OH and
NW PA through the end of the TAF period. Winds will start east
to southeast and veer to the south after tonight`s convection
and then to the southwest with the cold frontal passage on
Monday.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with low ceilings and any residual
showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Periodic Non-
VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure centered over the Great Plains will lift a warm front
north across the lake tonight. East winds 15-20 knots this afternoon
turn south as the front lifts northward. The surface low moves
northeast toward the Great Lakes region while dragging a cold front
east across the lake on Monday. Winds turn southwesterly behind the
front while increasing to 15-25 knots with waves across nearshore
waters building to 4-6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed Monday afternoon and evening into Tuesday. Additionally,
hazardous swimming conditions with an increased risk for rip
currents will be likely on Monday. Lingering surface troughing will
remain draped over the lake through the middle of the week. High
pressure builds in overhead from the northwest by mid week and will
turn winds onshore at 10-15 knots through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-
     007.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142-
     143.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Iverson