Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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107 FXUS64 KCRP 190539 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1239 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Key Message: -Moderate Risk for heat related illness today and tomorrow After yesterdays storms, a quiet period replaces the weather pattern with a more summer like one. A mid-level trough continues to move east of our CWA today, allowing for ridging to take its place. A mid- level high will build over Mexico and will nose into Texas and the Plains during the short term period leading to mostly sunny conditions during daytime hours. Temperatures this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon will be very similar, topping out in the 90-100 degree range across South Texas. Heat Indices both days will range 100-105 degrees with a Moderate Risk for heat related illness that affects those sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Please take precautions to stay cool/hydrated and check up on others, and remember to look before you lock. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 70s each night with partly to mostly cloudy skies with light onshore winds. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Key Message: - Increasing risk of heat-related impacts next week The main concern in the long term is our increasing risk for heat- related impacts through the week. The combination of a nearly stationary upper level ridge and persist onshore flow at the surface will allow for increasing temperatures and heat indices. The forecast looks to be fairly dry over the next week despite increasing low level moisture as subsidence aloft dominates. However, if we want to be disappointed later on this week, we could say that a passing shortwave on Wed/Thu and a boundary stalling to our north could warrant some low-end PoPs but confidence is very low in that scenario. Back to the heat...temperatures each afternoon will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat indices on Monday will generally range from 105-109 west of I-37. Conditions worsen as we head into the middle of the week with heat indices climbing into the 110-114 range from Tuesday on. These conditions will promote a major to potentially extreme risk for heat- related impacts. There won`t be much relief at night as overnight lows are forecast to remain in the low 80s which would keep heat indices in the 90s across the Brush Country and along the Coastal Bend. Daily Heat Advisories will likely be needed with the potential for Excessive Heat Warnings late in the work week. WPC currently has a medium to high chance of heat indices exceeding 110 daily and a medium chance of us exceeding 115 by Friday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected across the western sites tonight while the eastern sites drop to MVFR due to some patchy fog. With confidence on the denser fog developing and models backing out as well, increased tempo to MVFR conditions instead of IFR. All sites should improve to VFR tomorrow with light winds throughout this TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Weak northeasterly flow veers back onshore tonight and persists through Sunday night increasing to moderate flow Monday. A generally moderate onshore flow will continue through much of the week. Periods of occasionally strong onshore flow is possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Otherwise, expect hot and dry conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 92 76 93 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 92 72 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 76 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 74 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 100 76 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 94 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 89 79 90 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...JCP/84