612
FXUS64 KCRP 051759
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently making its way
across portions of the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal
Bend. Strong winds have been reported with this activity with wind
gusts up to 50 knots reported at Matagorda Bay. A Special Marine
Warning is in effect for the northern bays and nearshore waters,
and an extension farther southward is expected later on if storms
maintain their strength. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
will be possible (20% chance) later this afternoon across the west
before transitioning eastward through the evening in response to
a passing mid-level disturbance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Key Messages:

- Marginal Risk of Severe Storms Through This Evening
- Dangerous Heat Continues Today

There is a lot of uncertainty in regards to convection across the
region today. Currently, there is a MCS surging south near the
TX/LA border. This activity will continue south-southeast as a
shortwave rounds the eastern periphery of the ridge. Latest CAM
drags a decaying line of storms through the Victoria Crossroads by
mid day. This activity should weaken as it moves south into a
more stable environment. This MCS will kick an outflow out across
Central Texas this afternoon. Additional activity will likely
develop along this lingering boundary as a ribbon of H5 vorticity
elongates across the state. Convection that does form will drift
south through the afternoon and evening hours before fizzling out.
CAPES from 3000-4000 J/kg, ~1500 J/kg DCAPE, and steep lapse
rates will promote storms capable of producing damaging winds and
large hail.

In addition to our convective threat, dangerous heat looks to
continue across South Texas today. Temps today will climb into
the low 90s along the coast to around 105 out west. High dewpts
and warm temps will allow heat indices to climb into the 110-120
range this afternoon. An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect
for the Southern Coastal Bend and Northern Brush Country with a
Heat Advisory in effect everywhere else, except for the barrier
islands. With that said, it`s possible that we don`t see criteria
met across the Victoria Crossroads depending on the timing of
convection today.

By Thursday, upper level ridging begins to build in, promoting
rain-free conditions. Another round of Heat Advisories appears
likely.

Lastly, a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 1 PM
this afternoon. Tide levels are currently running just over 1 foot
above normal and will likely remain elevated through high tide as
7-9s swells persist. The High Risk of Rip Currents will remain in
effect through this evening. Southeasterly winds will weaken this
evening, which should bring our risk down to moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Ridging builds in overhead late in the work week. Increased
subsidence will hinder any rain chances through the weekend. By late
this weekend, the ridge begins to weaken as a trough dives south
across the Midwest. This will open the door for rain chances to
return to the region on Monday. It`s towards the end of the forecast
period but there are some signs of a rare June front arriving next
week.

Slightly drier air mixing in while allow for some "relief" from
our prolonged heat episode. Heat indices will settle into the
105-109 range which promotes a moderate to major risk of heat-
related impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions is ongoing across area terminals.
A line of showers and thunderstorms is currently exiting the VCT
site as it shifts to the south and over the northern Coastal Bend.
Impacts across the rest of the terminals is unlikely at the moment,
but may need to make some edits if the line holds its strength as
it extends southwestward. Another round of showers and thunderstorms
is possible later this afternoon, impacting first the western
sites and then shifting eastward through the evening. Periods of
MVFR conditions will persist tonight through Thursday morning.
Winds will be gusty out of the northeast with the current band of
storms, but in general out of the east and south east through the
rest of the cycle. Winds are forecast to decouple overnight and
become light and variable.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 7 AM for the bays
and 1 PM for the coastal waters. While winds will gradually
weaken, seas will remain elevated through mid day. A weak to
moderate onshore flow will then continue as we head into next
week. There is a low chance of showers and storms over the
offshore waters through the weekend. Chances begin to increase
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  80  97  78 /  20  20  10   0
Victoria          95  76  97  75 /  40  20  10   0
Laredo           104  79 103  79 /  10  20  10  10
Alice            102  79 100  76 /  20  20  10   0
Rockport          92  81  93  80 /  30  20  10   0
Cotulla          105  80 102  78 /  20  20   0   0
Kingsville       102  80  98  77 /  20  20  10   0
Navy Corpus       91  82  92  81 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>231-241>243.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ232>234-239-240-
     244>247-342>344-346-347.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ250-
     255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...ANM/88