Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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872 FXUS64 KCRP 010521 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1221 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Key Messages: - Marginal risk of strong to severe storms Saturday night A strong outflow boundary and storms earlier this morning has stabilized most of South Texas with strong east to southeasterly winds. The cooler air and lower dewpoints through most of today has led to the cancellation of the Heat Advisory as heat index values stay below 110. Low clouds filter back in tonight with low temperatures from the mid 70s to around 80. Maintaining a low (20%) chance of showers and storms through tonight for any remnant development. Cloud coverage decreases through the day on Saturday and will allow temperatures to warm back up into the 90s. Heat index values at this time will generally peak between 100-109. A Heat Advisory is not expected at this time as probabilities of apparent temperature greater than 109 is less than 20%. Another mid-level shortwave riding the northern ridge will push eastward from far West Texas and northeastern Mexico into Central Texas Saturday night. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of strong to severe storms making their way from Mexico and the Hill Country into South Texas. Saturday night lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Key Messages: - 30-60% Chance for heat indices above 110 degrees next week; 10-40% chance of surpassing 115 degrees Quasi-zonal flow is expected throughout much of the long term as a weak mid-level ridge builds underneath the zonal flow. The next pattern change will be late next week as a long wave trough pushes through the Great Plains and sends a weak cold front into Texas. As the front is expected to stall to our north, we are not expected to feel any impacts from next weeks disturbance which means we will be dry through next week. Above-normal temperatures are expected to return next week with highs ranging in the lower to mid 90s along the coast and upper 90s to near 105 from the Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Plains. As moisture increases to uncomfortable levels once again early next week, heat indices will climb to miserable levels once again. There is a medium (30-60%) chance for heat indices to climb above 110 degrees next week with a low to medium (10-40%) chance of surpassing 115 degrees. The hottest days next week are currently slated to be Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Low to mid level clouds are spreading across S TX and will continue this trend through the night. Currently the CIGs are at VFR levels but are expected to lower to MVFR between 06-10Z. Patchy fog from ALI to VCT will also lead to a brief period of MVFR VSBYs around daybreak Saturday. VFR conditions will become prevalent by mid morning and will continue through Saturday afternoon before lowering to MVFR levels once again Saturday evening. Wind gusts from the southeast will range between 20-25 knots on Saturday. A few showers will be possible across the eastern portions of S TX Saturday morning with an increasing chance of thunderstorms by afternoon, mainly across the VCT area. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Moderate to strong easterly to southeasterly winds this afternoon will be replaced with moderate onshore flow this evening. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 7 PM this evening. There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late tonight through the day Saturday. Moderate to strong southerly winds are expected form Sunday through Wednesday with a low chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday and Monday. Rain chances will be slim (less than 10%) through next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 93 81 94 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 77 93 78 94 / 10 20 10 10 Laredo 80 101 79 103 / 20 10 10 0 Alice 79 96 78 98 / 20 10 10 0 Rockport 80 91 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 Cotulla 78 99 80 102 / 30 10 10 0 Kingsville 80 95 80 96 / 10 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 81 92 82 92 / 20 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...TE/81