477
FXUS64 KCRP 280550
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1250 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Convection has dwindle across the area with only some lingering
showers with elevated embedded thunderstorms moving across the
Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains. A more stable environment
can be expected through the rest of the night, with rain chances
continuing to diminish. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was allowed
to expire at midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Goodness gracious, great balls of fire! It is HOT today. Heat
index values are currently ranging from 113-117 across South
Texas. Temperatures will remain elevated into the evening, so
continue to be careful out there tonight. The good news is that
temperatures should break a little for tomorrow with heat index
values at most locations staying below 114. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible late this evening as convection moves
across the Rio Grande. While confidence is not high that storms
will actually make it across the river, should they hold together,
they could be strong to severe. Those over the Rio Grande Plains
and western Brush Country should be careful to monitor their
weather this evening.

The ridge aloft will be squashed overnight and Tuesday, allowing
shortwaves to move across the northern area. This could introduce
some convection for Tuesday. There is only a low to moderate
(15%-40%) chance of convection but any storms could become strong
to severe. SPC has included our northwestern area in a Slight
Risk of severe weather, with a Marginal Risk elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to extreme heat related impacts can be expected Wednesday
through Sunday.

On Wednesday, the models (GFS and ECMWF) have a 500 mb ridge over
central Texas with a shortwave trough riding along it. The models
each kick off a complex of storms with each causing some sort of
feedback that pushes the storms in a different direction than the
other. Since this is either past or near past the end of the CAMs,
they are of no help, with the NAM having a third solution from hrs
60 through 84 on the 12z runs. The ECMWF has a thunderstorm complex
that kicks off Wednesday afternoon, which seems like it is forcing a
cold pool boundary to fire convection through South Texas and into
Deep South Texas. The GFS moves all of the thunderstorms northeast
east, and we are done. The NAM idea is pretty much dry over the
region through the 24 hours. So have gone with the NBM with its 20-
35% chance during the day on Wednesday and 20-25% Wednesday night.
One of the complicating factors is that the ridge and shortwaves
impact on temperatures. Looking through the guidance, the GFS is on
the high side with 105F in the Brush Country, and 100 or less on the
GFS. The NAM is around the NBM. However, if the GFS is right then if
could be warmer, and if the ECMWF is right it could be cooler.
Thursday and Thursday night look like things could be the same as
Wednesday with the NBM warming up a degree or two. The same looks
for Friday and Friday night (thunderstorms in the afternoon, 95-100F
temperatures, and 100-110F Heat Indices). This pattern with a
squashed ridge that allows thunderstorms, and continues with high
indices looks like it will continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions will prevail across area
terminals through the cycle. Convection should be coming to an
end over the next few hours, with drier conditions expected
through most of the day on Tuesday. Winds have been responding to
the nearby thunderstorms and have become breezy at times, but
these will generally weaken overnight, becoming light by the
early morning hours. Winds will strengthen to moderate levels
around mid to late morning today, before weakening again in the
evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night
before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There
will be a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day from Wednesday through the end of the work week, mainly across
the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  93  78  93 /  20  30  20  20
Victoria          77  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  30
Laredo            78 100  78 102 /  30  20  20  10
Alice             78  95  77  97 /  20  30  20  20
Rockport          81  90  80  90 /  20  30  20  20
Cotulla           78  98  78 100 /  40  20  20  10
Kingsville        79  94  77  95 /  20  20  20  20
Navy Corpus       82  91  82  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...ANM/88