Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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782 FXUS64 KCRP 270358 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1058 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Key Message: - Dangerous heat continues Memorial Day with a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts - Low chance (20%) of strong to severe showers and thunderstorms 4-9 PM over the Rio Grande Plains and northern Coastal Plains Cloud coverage has been greater today than previously expected and fortunately has limited surface heating. Temperatures currently in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the upper 70s are causing heat index values between 105 to 115. A few more hours this afternoon will allow for these heat indices to bump up a few degrees. Therefore, kept the Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory in effect through tonight and extended through Memorial Day. Please continue to take heat precautions and follow the guidance as described in the last paragraph of the long term discussion. Dewpoints remaining in the upper 70s to around 80 along with increasing cloud coverage tonight will likely keep low temperatures near the same, around 80. Currently, KCRP has observed 150 hours straight of air temperatures at least 80 degrees, by far the earliest stretch of such length. The last earliest stretch in the calendar year of at least 150 hours of 80 degree temperatures occurred last year from June 14-21st (166 hours). We don`t anticipate going below 80 until early Tuesday morning at the earliest. This has led to 5 consecutive days of record high minimums and 6 consecutive days of record heat indices set at Corpus Christi. The lack of heat recovery overnight and heat index values returning to 110-119 tomorrow has warranted an extension of the heat products through Memorial Day. Air quality will remain poor as HRRR near-surface smoke model guidance continues to illustrate smoke ushering in from Central America agricultural fires early this week. Maintained the low chance (20%) of showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon through Monday evening mainly for the Rio Grande Plains and the northern tier counties. SPC has included all of South Texas with the exception of the Coastal Bend in a marginal risk for strong to severe storms. Throughout Memorial Day, environmental conditions may become conducive over the Hill Country and near the Sierra Madres in the warm sector east of the dryline and south of stationary front over Central Texas. Any storms that fire off may act as a lifting mechanism to help overcome the cap between 4-9pm when cin is weakest. The strengthening low-level jet and late afternoon sea breeze could help aid in convection development. Confidence is low as CAMs differ on keeping the convection over Mexico or persisting into South Texas. Any isolated storm that does break the cap, has the potential to bringing damaging winds and large hail with instability near 5000 J/kg, DCAPE around 1300 J/kg, steep lapse rates over 8 C/km, and effective shear around 50 knots. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 - Low chances (10-25%) of rain chances daily this week Quasi-zonal flow is expected to prevail in the long term as a weak upper-level ridge will be parked to our south. Multiple mid-level shortwave disturbances will move through the region, and with low- level southeasterly flow in place, we should have plenty of moisture to trigger low chances for rain and thunderstorms daily through this week. However, it is a bit tricky to nail down locations and amounts of rainfall, etc. as the weak ridge aloft won`t exactly make the setup ideal. Additionally, with 700mb temperatures remaining on the warm side, there will be decent mid-level capping in place. Therefore, we are only including a low chance (10-25%) for precipitation through next Sunday. Some periods of thunderstorms and locally heavy rain may be possible at times, as model SBCAPE values show 3000+ J/kg and PWAT values may reach 1.5- 1.75 inches. This is specifically true for Tuesday and Wednesday as WPC has portions of the Brush Country and the northeast Coastal Plains in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. With the establishment of quasi-zonal flow, combined with slight rain chances and increased cloud cover, high temperatures are expected to be "cooler" this upcoming week compared to our recent warm spell. Daytime highs are set to top out in the low to mid-90s across the Coastal Plains, with the upper 90s to low 100s expected farther west. Heat indices will remain generally below 112 degrees. Despite these "cooler" conditions, there remains a medium to high chances (40-70%) of moderate to major heat-related impacts, with a low to medium chance (10-40%) of an extreme risk across portions of the Brush Country and the southern Coastal Plains. This is due to anticipated poor overnight heat recoveries that could impact individuals sensitive to heat and those without adequate cooling measures, as well as some health systems and heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected in the eastern TAF sites overnight. The likely timing of arrival for IFR ceilings will be around 08-10Z. Some patchy fog could develop and mix in with haze and further drop visibilities during the morning. COT will be the only western site expected to briefly drop to MVFR ceilings. Ceilings should transition to VFR at all sites by 15-18Z. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the area during the later half of the period. This will be reassessed in future TAF issuances. && .MARINE... Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will continue through Monday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Tuesday through the end of the work week, with periods of strong 20-25 knot gusts on Friday. Seas will generally be between 4-5 feet, increasing to 5-6 feet by next weekend. There will be low (10-25%) chances of showers and thunderstorms each evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 93 82 96 79 / 10 0 0 10 Victoria 94 79 97 76 / 10 0 0 20 Laredo 106 82 109 80 / 0 0 20 20 Alice 100 80 101 77 / 10 0 10 10 Rockport 91 82 90 79 / 10 0 0 10 Cotulla 105 82 108 79 / 0 0 20 20 Kingsville 96 81 98 77 / 10 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 91 82 90 82 / 10 10 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ229-230- 239>243. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ231>234-244>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...NP/92