672
FXUS64 KCRP 290243
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
943 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remain in effect through 2 AM for the
Brush Country and Coastal Plains. As of writing, there is a severe
warned storm pushing across the Rio Grande into Laredo. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats as this system moves
east. In addition to the severe threat, rain rates from 2-4"/hr
may cause some localized ponding in poor drainage areas. Soils
should be able to handle the rainfall but we will continue to
monitor for any flooding issues.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Made a few tweaks to the forecast this evening:

1) Trimmed out the Victoria Crossroads and Northern Coastal Bend
from the Heat Advisory. An outflow boundary moving through cooled
them off nicely with current temps in the low 80s and heat
indices around 85. Everywhere south and west of this boundary will
remain in the Advisory through 8 PM.

2) Adjusted PoPs based on the latest CAM trends. A MCS is
currently tracking over the mountain terrain of Mexico. The latest
guidance brings this MCS over the Rio Grande and across the Brush
Country. Damaging winds and large hail remain the primary
threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium chance of strong to severe thunderstorms tonight

- Cooler temperatures Wednesday, though Heat Advisories may still
  be necessary

- Low chance of thunderstorms Wednesday

An ongoing MCS continues to bear down on southeast Texas, pushing
outflow boundaries toward and, eventually across, South Texas.
Showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop just north of
Victoria County along one of these boundaries. Storms appear to be
relatively weak at this point, but instability, high moisture,
and steep lapse rates could contribute to more convective
enhancement across our area. The greater chance for convection is
likely later tonight as more storms develop over the west and move
across the Brush Country/Coastal Plains. Damaging winds will be
the greatest threat from thunderstorms, followed by large hail.
While tornados seem unlikely, there is still a very small chance
that we could have one occur. Showers and storms will continue
into Wednesday, though severe weather is unlikely.

Temperatures will cool for tomorrow, with heat index values
ranging from 102-109 over most of the area. Those in the western
Brush Country and over the southern inland Coastal Bend may yet
experience heat index values of 110-112 Wednesday afternoon.
Continue to practice heat safety! While it will be slightly
cooler, frequent breaks, drinking lots of water, and wearing
light, loose clothing will be important to keeping safe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to extreme heat related impacts continue this week
through early next week.

A mid-level ridge positioned over Mexico extending over South Texas
is expected to be the main weather influencer over the long-term
period. Daily weather through the end of this week, expecting hot
and muggy conditions to continue with low rain/storm chances around
(20-30%) as several upper and mid-level disturbances move around the
periphery of the high but mostly stay north of our CWA. Then for the
remainder of the forecast, dry conditions are progged with silent
PoP`s <15% chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low-level onshore flow,
and a southwesterly/northwesterly flow in the mid-levels will advect
drier air over the region will allow for warmer temperatures. As a
result, moderate to extreme heat related impacts will continue
despite a slight yet brief "cool-down" of surface temperatures.

Afternoon highs will climb into the 90-105 degree range for the
period. Heat indices will mainly hover between 105-110 into next
week, heat indices early next week could hit at least 115 degrees
but confidence is low at this time. Dewpoints mainly stay in the mid
to upper 70s will make it feel like full blown summer in May.
Additional Heat Advisories/Excessive Heat Warnings may be warranted
and are more likely the beginning of next week. Regardless, the
prolonged heat lessens the body`s ability to recover and becomes
less tolerant to hot conditions.

In addition to the heat, haze from fires down in Mexico continue to
impact our area which can result in respiratory issues especially
for sensitive groups. Expecting the haze to continue until the fires
have been extinguished or if the southerly low-level flow changes
directions (i.e. north). Please take pre-cautions to protect
yourself when outdoors for prolonged periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are in place across most terminals early this
evening. CRP dropped down to MVFR as of writing this discussion.
MVFR ceilings are expected at all sites in the next few hours.
The main concern tonight will be the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms to spread across the region. A MCS is
currently developing over the mountain terrain of Mexico. There is
fairly decent agreement that these storms will hold together as it
crosses the Rio Grande. Based on the current timing and trends,
COT/LRD will begin to see VCTS by 02/03Z with TSRA from 03-07Z.
ALI/CRP will see activity a few hours later. Only have a mention
of VCTS at VCT as storms may stay south of the terminals.
Additional TAF updates will likely be needed through the night as
these storms move closer and confidence grows.

Otherwise, VFR returns through the morning hours with winds
becoming gusty once again by mid day. Continued with a mention of
HZ as fires continue to burn to our south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night
before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday.
There is a low to moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms
today through Wednesday. A few storms could be strong to severe
tonight. Mostly moderate conditions expected to persist into next
week. However, moderate to strong levels may occur at times
towards the end of this week. There`s a low to chance of up to
20-25% for showers and thunderstorms each day through the end of
the week over the waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  92  79  93 /  50  30  20  20
Victoria          77  91  76  92 /  40  40  30  30
Laredo            77  99  78 102 /  70  20  10  10
Alice             77  96  77  96 /  60  30  20  20
Rockport          80  88  81  90 /  40  40  30  20
Cotulla           76  97  77 100 /  70  20  20  10
Kingsville        79  95  78  95 /  50  30  20  20
Navy Corpus       81  88  81  91 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC/95
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...TC