303
FXUS64 KCRP 240838
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
338 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Key Messages:

 Dangerous Heat Continues

Quasi-zonal flow will continue today as an upper-level ridge begins
to build tonight into tomorrow. Well above-normal temperatures and
dew points are expected to continue and promote miserable heat
indices across South Texas. With heat index values expected to
reach the 117-119 degree range this afternoon, an Excessive Heat
Warning will be in effect. As daytime highs tomorrow continue to
trend to be a couple degrees warmer than today, there is a high
chance for the issuance of another Excessive Heat Warning for
tomorrow. Although confidence is high for another Excessive Heat
Warning for tomorrow, will opt to not issue at this time to allow
the current one to expire. Major to extreme risk of heat-related
impacts will continue today with more widespread extreme risks
tomorrow.

As we are heading into the Memorial Day Holiday weekend, please be
sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks
from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and
lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat
exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it.
Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them
inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally,
check local media and government websites for cooling center
locations and hours.

Despite swell periods only around 6 to 7 seconds and swell heights
of 3 to 4 feet, water levels continue to run about a foot above
normal, therefore, will maintain the Coastal Flood Advisory for this
morning and afternoon. Chances for another Coastal Flood Advisory
tomorrow are currently low as swell periods and swell heights are
expected to be lower. Furthermore, with winds between 20-25 mph and
wave heights of 4 to 5 feet across the local beaches south of Port
Aransas, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for today and
expected to continue into tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme heat-related impacts continue through Monday.

Largely mid-level ridging pattern persist into early next week.
Continued hot and humid conditions are anticipated with high
temperatures between 105 and 110 over the Brush Country and in the
90s and lower 100s east. Surface moisture holds strong with
dewpoints in the 70s, resulting in elevated heat index values.
Heat risk levels remain major to extreme.

Some relief comes early next week as the ridge flattens a bit and we
start to get some shortwaves punching through it. This should drop
our temperatures down a notch as well as provide at least a little
more cloud cover. 850 temps that will be flirting with 30C for the
weekend also drop back a few degrees. We`ll still be hot - just not
as hot. High temperatures will be more like 100-105 degrees west
and in the mid and upper 90s east. We`ll even have some low chance
PoPs in the forecast each day with the shortwaves. A weak front
may even try to push into the area Tuesday. If it can push in at
all, it likely does not make it all the way through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Clouds along the coastal areas are spreading inland and will
continue this trend through the overnight hours. This will lead to
MVFR CIGs, mainly for CRP, ALI and VCT. The clouds are not expected
to reach LRD, but could briefly reach COT early Friday morning.
Winds will likely be too elevated to allow fog to develop, but hazy
conditions are expected in the morning due to agricultural fires
well south of the region. Otherwise, VFR conditions resume across S
TX by mid morning and continue through the remainder of Friday
afternoon. Surface winds currently gusting to around 30 knots across
ALI, VCT and CRP, are expected to decrease through 02-05Z as they
decouple. A low level jet around 30 knots is forecast to develop
tonight, but surface winds will remain elevated, thus not
anticipating Low Level Wind Shear. Winds restrengthen Friday mid to
late morning. Gusts on Friday are forecast to be a tad lower around
23-28 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow is expected through
Saturday with a low chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions
(winds around 20 knots) this afternoon and Saturday, mainly across
the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Seas are
expected to remain around 4-5 feet through Saturday. Otherwise,
generally moderate onshore flow is expected. For Monday and
Tuesday, weak to moderate onshore flow is expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  81  95  80 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          95  80  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           109  82 109  82 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            103  79 101  78 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          91  82  91  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          108  81 108  81 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        99  80  98  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  83  92  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ229-230-
     239>243.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Saturday for TXZ229>231-239>243.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     TXZ342>344-442-443.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JCP