162
FXUS61 KCTP 071425
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1025 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Cooler/breezy/pleasant into the weekend with low humidity
*Periods of showers/t-storm this afternoon and again on Sunday
*Reinforced cool down Monday precedes warming trend next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Vortmax rotating around base of seasonably strong 500mb trough
drifting slowly to the east from Georgian Bay will trigger
diurnally enhanced showers and a few t-storms focused primarily
across the northern tier of central PA (north of I80) from late
morning through the afternoon.

Not as warm as yesterday thanks to cooler temps aloft and
expanding instability cumulus field. Highs in the 65-80F range
are 5-10F cooler than Thursday with similar departures from
climo over the western and northern Alleghenies. Low pwat air
combined with steep low level lapse rates/BL mixing favors
lowering dewpoints and increasing wind gusts especially during
peak heating.

Shower activity fades by late tonight with a decreasing POP
trend 00-12Z Saturday. Low temps in the 50-60F range are within
a few degrees either side of early June climo. Partial clearing
could allow patchy fog to form toward daybreak Saturday in the
deeper east-central valleys, but the dry air and persistent
westerly breeze should maintain good visibility in most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend will start off breezy and pleasant with low RH
and no precip as high pressure migrates over the area. More
sunshine will allow for slightly warmer max temps (vs. Friday)
with highs in the 70-80F range.

Model consensus continues to indicate the next period of
showers from late Saturday night into Sunday night as another
shortwave trough and cold front move through the region.
Continued breezy and relatively cool for this time of year with
max/min temps near to below the historical avg. for early June.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level trough will become stacked with the surface low
as they stall out over south central Quebec. Several short
waves will rotate around the main low during the beginning of
next week. This will provide enough lift for isolated to
scattered showers, but moisture going into Monday and Tuesday
will be lacking with dewpoints struggling to rise above the mid
50s. PoPs have mainly be capped near 30 percent through the
middle and end of next week given the uncertainty of moisture
availability in the unsettledness of the upper atmosphere.

Temperatures are likely to average somewhat below climatology
for early to mid-June, with daily highs in the upper 60s and
70s, and overnight lows in the 50s to lower 60s. Thursday will
be the beginning of a slight warming trend to round out next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong June sun has resulted in some showers across the
northwest mountains as of late morning. Thunderstorms are
expected to be a bit further north.

Main thing for most of the area will be a gusty west wind
this afternoon, as the colder air aloft is mixed downward.

Dewpoints not real high, and aside from the southeast on
Wednesday, the area has not had a lot of heavy rain this
week, so the chance of widespread fog tonight is not very high.

Less change of showers on Saturday, as weak high pressure
builds into the area.

A fast moving cold front will bring a chance of showers and
storms back into the area for Sunday.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, A late evening shower/brief
vis reductions possible NW Mtns.

Sun...AM low cigs possible NW Mtns, MVFR cigs linger into midday
north/west of Allegheny Front. A chance of showers, perhaps a
storm.

Mon-Tues...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Bowen
AVIATION...Martin