114
ACUS48 KWNS 090820
SWOD48
SPC AC 090818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The overall large-scale pattern looks to remain characterized by
mid-to-upper-level ridging across the western United States with a
zonal to broadly cyclonic flow across the northern tier of the US
through the forecast period. At the same time, rich/moist low-level
moisture looks to remain entrenched across much of the eastern US,
sustained in part by broad, southerly flow, albeit with some
fluctuations in raw values. Global models continue to be bullish on
a seasonably strong cold front pushing south through much of the
central US late in the forecast period, ushering in a cooler/drier
airmass.

Strong-to-locally severe thunderstorms will be possible somewhere
across the eastern CONUS every day of the forecast period. However,
with synoptic-scale forcing/dynamics primarily constrained to
Canada, most thunderstorms will be determined by
sub-synoptic/mesoscale details dictated by/reinforced with each
prior day`s convection. Thus, confidence is too low in any one
location on any given day to introduce unconditional severe
probabilities at this time.

However, some areas/scenarios of interest to monitor include the
southern Great Plains on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday as a moist, weakly
capped environment will exist in proximity to an increasing diffuse
surface boundary. Other areas include the East Coast most afternoons
and the along and ahead of seasonably strong cold front pushing
south through the Great Plains from Days 6-8.

For each of the areas of interest/scenarios of interest above, weak
effective-layer shear stemming from generally weak tropospheric flow
will be a limiting factor for a more organized severe potential and
confidence to introduce unconditional probabilities.

..Marsh.. 07/09/2025