300
FXUS63 KDDC 050335
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A break in thunderstorm activity is forecast tonight through
  Friday with 12-hr probability of precipitation less than 15
  percent through this period.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will increase in chances
  beginning Friday evening which will continue through the
  weekend.

- Multiple thunderstorm clusters over the weekend will likely
  bring localized rainfall over an inch across portions of west
  central and southwest Kansas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

After looking over forecast trends and updated added some patchy
fog wording mainly from Scott City to Greensburg from just
before sunrise to shortly after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Early this afternoon, an elongated shortwave trough extending from
the western Dakotas south to western Kansas continued to move east.
An associated cold front at the surface was also moving southeast
across western Kansas, reaching a Great Bend, KS to Perryton, TX
line as of 20Z (3 PM CDT). On satellite, clearing was occurring
behind the front, and the severe weather risk continued to push east
of our forecast area, deeper into central and south central Kansas.

This Short Term period tonight through Wednesday night will be quiet
as we enter a break from convective weather. For tonight, we will be
watching for patchy ground fog as skies continue to clear areawide
and winds drop off to near calm. We have not entered any fog into
the official forecast, but the evening shift may need to add some
fog in if the signal becomes stronger. The 12Z models, including the
HREF ensemble, only shows isolated to widely scattered 10 to 15%
probabilities of one-quarter mile visibility across much of
southwest Kansas.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will continue quiet as stated above,
with a warmup expected to afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s
expected. The mid 90s will be confined to areas of mainly far
southwest Kansas where precipitation over the past couple weeks has
been less than other corners of west central and southwest Kansas.
On Wednesday Night, another cold front will push south late in the
night, likely reaching west central Kansas by 09Z Thursday. This
front will push all the way through southwest Kansas by some time
early to mid morning hours Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The focus of the Long Term period will be another active MCS pattern
from Friday Night through Monday Night. There has been run-to-run
continuity among all the major global deterministic and ensemble
system of a favorable west-northwest pattern aloft, above an
increasingly moistening boundary layer across the High Plains.
Widespread southerly/southeasterly low level winds will develop,
favoring terrain-enhanced convective storms across eastern Colorado
and adjacent High Plains. Dryline/leeside trough convergence will
also favor storm development over the weekend in addition to any
outflow boundaries from previous mesoscale convective systems (MCS).
Multiple MCSs are becoming more and more likely through the Friday
Night into Monday Night period. If there is any night that is the
most favorable for numerous thunderstorms and widespread one-half
inch or more rainfall would be Saturday Night, as this is the time
frame of greatest Grand Ensemble (ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS
combined) signal regardless of the metric used to generate
probabilistic output...as the Grand Ensemble shows Saturday Night,
in particular, as the best time for joint probabilities of QPF,
CAPE, and deep layer wind shear.

The lack of an amplified large scale, hemispheric pattern will
support continued MCS activity, which models will keep going through
around Tuesday. By Tuesday of next week, the global model/ensemble
consensus shows an increasing signal of a potential long break in
convective weather with anomalous cool 850mb temperature and
anomalous high mean sea-level pressure across much of the central
and eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR will prevail through the majority of this TAF period. The
exception will be during the 09-15z Wed timerange, when areas of
stratus and fog are expected to develop in a light wind regime
and saturated boundary layer. The highest confidence of stratus
and patchy fog development is at DDC/GCK, with less confidence
at HYS/LBL. Any fog/stratus will burn off rapidly by 15z Wed.
After 15z Wed, SW winds return to all airports, gusting 20-23
kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Tatro
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner