800
FXUS63 KDDC 101900
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend begins today and persists through Thursday with
  afternoon highs reaching to low 100s Thursday.

- Showers/thunderstorms are possible Thursday night along a weak
  cold front, favoring the northern zones.

- Another chance for precipitation exists sometime around
  Saturday, favoring the western half of our area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis
reveal rather weak 500-mb flow is in place above the central
plains as the main belt of the subtropical jet is displaced just
to the north. At the surface, a ~1002-mb low is spread out
across eastern MT/WY/CO, supporting southeasterly winds over
southwest KS. Throughout the short term period, ensembles agree
500-mb heights will gradually rise as a ridge begins to build
atop the southern plains, along with generally southerly surface
winds as the surface low tracks east ahead of an upper level
shortwave impulse riding the US/Canada border. These factors
will contribute to a quiet, warming trend for our area, as
afternoon highs increase from the low 80s today to the mid/upper
80s tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

At the beginning of the long term period, medium range ensembles
agree southwest KS will be along the interface of a building
ridge over the southern plains and the subtropical jet,
resulting in weak northwesterly 500-mb flow. As the ridge
continues to build and move east Wednesday and Thursday, the
warming trend will march on with afternoon highs increasing
from the mid 90s Wednesday to the low 100s Thursday. Thursday
night, a weak cold front attached to a surface low over central
Quebec, Canada, will sag south into our area before washing out
early Friday. Ensembles suggests showers and thunderstorms may
accompany this front, as probability of QPF > 0.01" increases
into the 30-60% range favoring the northern zones. Severe storms
may be possible with this activity as well, however confidence
is low at the moment.

Daytime Friday, ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will
begin to weaken and shift east as a compact shortwave trough
moves east-northeast from near the CA/AZ border across the
Desert Southwest. As this feature approaches, decreasing 500-mb
heights should support a slight cooldown in temperatures with
afternoon highs dropping into the 90s Friday through the end of
the period. Additionally, this wave will reinvigorate the
precipitation chances for southwest KS. Both the ECMWF EPS and
GEFS indicate probability of QPF > 0.01" reaching the 60-90%
range for roughly the western half of our CWA, centered around
the late Friday night to Saturday night time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current
southeast winds aoa 12 kts will continue through sunset before
weakening to light and variable by 03Z Tuesday. Little change
is expected thereafter with only a minor uptick in winds out of
the southwest possible at HYS around sunrise Tuesday morning.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Springer
LONG TERM...Springer
AVIATION...Springer