Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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178 FXUS63 KDDC 292255 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 555 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Several opportunities for rain over the next few days - Risk of severe weather and localized flash flooding on Thursday - Much warmer temperatures expected next week && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 18z observations show a warm frontal boundary across central Kansas with a surface high located in northeast New Mexico. An upper level ridge is moving through the southern Rockies with a developing shortwave and afternoon storms in the Colorado Rockies. For tonight CAM models have been pretty consistent with storms developing both in northeast and southeast Colorado as the shortwave ejects into those areas by late afternoon. The line of storms in southeast Colorado isn`t expected to reach Kansas until around 7pm and the northern line will reach southwest Kansas after midnight. Highest CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg will be just along and west of the Colorado border and the CAPE values fall quickly as you go east into Kansas. This would reflect the storms starting out strong in Colorado and then gradually weakening to more general storms as they move into Kansas tonight. Marginal risk of severe weather is in place mainly for areas along and west of highway 283 with some hail bigger than quarters and 60 mph wind gust threats. The overnight storms will likely have a higher threat of localized heavy rainfall as some areas could receive over 0.50 inch of rain in a short amount of time especially between the highway 83 and 281 corridors. Thursday as the shortwave propagates into central Kansas we should rain chances decrease through the late morning but it does look like the clouds should hang around for most of the day in areas along and east of highway 83. West of 83 we should see more sunshine and combined with low level moisture we should see the atmosphere destabilize during the afternoon. Depending on where the outflow boundary is left from Wednesday night`s convection we should see a frontal boundary somewhere in the highway 54-56 corridors ignite a round of storms as a 700 mb shortwave moves into western Kansas by 21-00Z. CAPE values are forecast to be in the 2000-3000 J/kg range for the areas that receive sun with 25-30 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. Severe threat of large hail and damaging winds will be on the table again especially for areas along and west of highway 83. Thursday night with weak flow aloft and the stationary outflow boundary we are seeing a setup which could favor some localized flash flooding. PWAT values over 1 inch and models forecast bunkers motion of 10 kts or less is suggesting storms will have a lot of moisture and very little movement. There is a slight risk of flash flooding for all of southwest Kansas and high probabilities (50-70%) of 1 inch or more of rain east of a Liberal to WaKeeney line. While the ground can take a soaking rain with these thunderstorms we could certainly see 1-2 inch per hour rain rates and areas prone to flash flooding will be at higher risk during the night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Rain and storm chances continue into Friday morning as the upper level low will move into central Kansas by mid morning. Rain will become more spotty in the afternoon as some areas of 700 mb lift will reside in central and western Kansas mainly around the I-70 corridor and the Colorado border. Ensemble trends through the weekend and early next week are showing more of a zonal to slight ridging pattern. Storm chances become much less during next week with only 20-30 POPs due to some pop up storm chances mainly in central Kansas. The bigger story is the warm up in temperatures. Euro and GEFS ensembles are showing 50-70% chances of 90 degree highs starting Monday and continuing into the middle of next week. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be in the 20-25 (C) range which would reflect good warming to the surface. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 The TAFS will undoubtedly need at least some minor amendments as the shift progresses, and convection shows its hand across the area through 12z. The setup is similar to last evening, with marginally severe storms, mainly hail storms, that will be moving out of Colorado in the late evening and running into a less favorable environment for widespread severe thunderstorms. Still, the moisture and warm temperature advection will provide the impetus for sustained updrafts propagating east of highway 83 overnight. The HRRR model shows a gust front outflow boundary moving east of Liberal along the KS/OK line around 7 or 8 UTC. Expect ceilings to drop to around 2k ft in thunderstorms will lingering stratus developing behind the storms heading into the morning hours. HREF Low cloud probabilities are in the 40-60 percent area for IFR cloud development, at any terminal after 9z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tatro LONG TERM...Tatro AVIATION...Russell