054
FXXX12 KWNP 231606
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate with multiple M-class (R1/Minor) flares.
Background X-ray flux was at C-class levels and six designated sunspot
groups were present on the visible solar disk. The most notable
development was areal growth in Region 3679 (S09W65, Ekc/
beta-gamma-delta) and the emergence of a delta. This region produced the
majority of the activity during the period including the largest flare,
an M4.2 flare at 23/0216 UTC. Region 3683 (S23, L=241) rotated beyond
the limb, but still managed a C9.7 flare at 23/0642 UTC. Region 3685
(S13W15, Ehc/beta-gamma) exhibited decay in its intermediate spots. A
new area of potential spot emergence was noted at approximately N20W44,
but we are awaiting duration requirements before designation. The rest
of the spotted regions were mostly inactive.

There were two filament eruptions that lifted off the SE. The first one
is first visible in C2 imagery at 23/0125 UTC. Modeling results showed a
miss south and behind Earths orbit. The second originated from just
east of AR 3685 and is first visible in C2 at 23/0648 UTC. Modeling is
underway for this event at the time of this writing.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain moderate 23-25 May, with a slight
chance of X-class flares (R3/Strong) due primarily to the increasing
flare potential of Region 3679.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
Normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels is forecast for
23-25 May, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels. However, there remains a slight chance of
an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm due to the potential from Region
3679.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced. Total field was primarily
6-8 nT, with a peak of 9 nT and the Bz component was variable. Solar
wind speed was below 400 km/s. The phi angle was primarily positive.

.Forecast...
The mildly enhanced IMF is expected to continue on 23 May. Influences
from an isolated CH HSS are anticipated on 24-25 May. However, most of
the HSS will likely be north of Earth and mainly modest solar wind speed
increases are expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet, with isolated
unsettled conditions on 23 May as the minor enhancement in the solar
wind continues. CH HSS effects 24-25 May may lead to additional
unsettled periods, with possible active conditions on 24 May.