Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
203 FXXX12 KWNP 080031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 08 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at moderate levels. There are currently 9 numbered regions on the visible disk with background level elevated to ~C3.0. New Region 3709 (S10E74, Cai/beta) produced an M4.0/Sf flare at 07/0913 UTC. Region 3697 (S17W58, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an M1.2 flare at 07/1622 UTC as it continues to rotate into view. Region 3697 continued to be the largest and most complex spot group as it slightly grew. Regions 3698 (N22W68, Dai/beta) and 3703 (S08W37, Dac/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in their intermediate spots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels through 09 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 10 Jun. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 09 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to what is likely transient passage. At approximately 07/1045 UTC, Total field started steadily increase to a maximum of 15 nT at 07/1358 UTC and Bz reached a deflection of -15 nT. Solar wind speeds were at ~360 km/s then increased to 475 km/s for the latter half of the UT day. Phi was variable. .Forecast... Enhanced conditions are expected on 08-09 Jun due to the continued transient influence and the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS on 08 Jun. 10 Jun is likely to see a return to background-like conditions. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels with transient passage. .Forecast... Unsettled to active levels are expected on 08 Jun with continued transient influence and arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 09 Jun with continued weak CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 10 Jun with a return to a nominal solar wind.