Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
931 FXXX12 KWNP 120031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 12 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class flare activity. Region 3697, now well beyond the western limb, was the apparent culprit of a C9.0 flare at 11/0329 UTC and a C9.1 flare at 11/0443 UTC, which were the two largest flares of the period. Region 3709 (S09E15, Cai/beta) became the most interesting region on the visible disk, but exhibited signs of decay in its intermediate and trailing spots. The remaining active regions were stable and relatively quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels with a chance for isolated moderate activity in the form of low-level M-class flares (R1/Minor Radio Blackouts) through 14 Jun. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased to near background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 14 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain near background levels through 14 Jun with a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) solar radiation event. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influence. Total field decreased from 9-10 nT to 5-6 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component of the IMF began the period mostly southward, reaching -9 nT, but then spent the remainder of the period near neutral or northward. Wind speeds declined over the course of the period, ending near ambient-like levels of ~350 km/s. Phi began as variable before becoming predominantly positive. .Forecast... Waning CME influence is expected during the early portion of 12 Jun. Ambient-like, background conditions are anticipated thereafter and through 14 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with early active periods. .Forecast... Early unsettled periods are possible on 12 Jun as lingering CME effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions with a chance for isolated unsettled periods are expected thereafter and through 14 Jun.