Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
882 FXXX12 KWNP 110031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 11 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3697 (S19W99, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.5 flare at 10/1108 UTC and an M9.5 flare at 10/1840. The M9.5 flare was accompanied by a Type II burst (754 km/s). Both flares appeared to produce CMEs, neither of which appeared to be Earth directed. Slight growth was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3709 (S08E28, Dki/beta-gamma). .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at moderate to high levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 11 Jun with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong). For 12-13 Jun, there is a decreasing chance for M-class flares with only a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity as Region 3697 moves further beyond the SW limb. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux dipped below minor (S1) levels yesterday and has continued a downward trend towards background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 13 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced through 11 May and decrease to normal levels on 12-13 May barring any further enhancements. Proton prediction model outputs for both the X1.5 and M9.5 flares mentioned above suggested proton events reaching event thresholds were unlikely from both flares, however there is a slight increase after 10/2100 UTC in ACE/SIS data. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters at L1 were unremarkable until an interplanetary shock, believe to be from the 08 Jun CME, was detected at 10/1634 UTC. Wind speed jumped from approximately 350 km/s to end the period near 495 km/s. Bz dipped to -10 nT and Bt reached 16 nT. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... CME influence is expected to persist through midday on 11 Jun and slowly wane through 12 Jun. A return to nominal levels is likely on 13 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to the arrive of the interplanetary shock described above. A 52 nT geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 10/1725 UTC at NGK. .Forecast... Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected during 11 Jun, with minor storm (G1) conditions likely. Quiet to Unsettled levels are expected on 12 Jun CME effects diminish. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 13 Jun.