Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
530 FXXX12 KWNP 100031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 10 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3697 (S19W86, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest event of the period, an M1.6/Sf flare at 09/0701 UTC. This region also produced additional C-class flares. The region continued to be the largest and most complex spot group on the disk and showed little changed as it approached the WSW limb. Region 3703 (S08W66, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited some decay in the intermediate portion. Region 3709 (S10E45,Cai/beta) produced an M1.2 flare at 09/0819 UTC. A slight increase in spots were observed in the trailer portion of this region. New spots 3710 (S15W51, Cao/beta) and 3711 (S09E52, Dao/beta) were numbered this period. No new CMEs were detected this period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 10 Jun with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong). On 11-12 Jun, a chance for moderate levels, and a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity is forecasted. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased throughout the period but remained at Minor (S1) levels. A peak flux of 83 pfu was observed at 09/0030 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 12 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1 (Minor) levels into 10 Jun, and with the impending arrival of the 08 Jun CME, flux levels will likely see an enhancement coincident with the shock arrival. There is a chance for S1 levels to linger into 11 Jun and a slight chance for S1 levels on 12 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from ~500-400 km/s. Total field was at 4-6 nT. Bz was +/- 5 nT. Phi was variable. .Forecast... By around midday on 10 Jun, CME effects from the 08 Jun CME are likely to cause enhanced parameters that persist through 11 Jun. A return to nominal levels is likely on 12 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Active to Moderate (G2) storm levels are expected on 10 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of the 08 Jun CME. Active to Minor (G1) storm levels are likely on 11 Jun as CME impacts slowly decline. A return to quiet and unsettled levels is expected on 12 Jun.