Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
921 FXXX12 KWNP 091231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 09 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decayed to moderate levels. Region 3697 (S19W79, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest event of the period, an M1.6/Sf flare at 09/0701 UTC. This region also produced additional C-class flares. The region continued to be the largest and most complex spot group on the disk and showed little changed as it approached the WSW limb. Region 3703 (S08W59, Dao/beta-gamma) produced an M1.0 flare at 08/2102 UTC. Some decay was observed in the intermediate portion of the region. Region 3709 (S10E52,Cai/beta) produced an M1.2 flare at 09/0819 UTC. A slight increase in spots were observed in the trailer portion of this region. New spots 3710 (S15W44, Cao/beta) and 3711 (S09E59, Dao/beta) were numbered this period. No new CMEs were detected this period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 10 Jun with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong). On 11 Jun, a chance for moderate levels, and a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity is forecasted. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux responded to the M9.7 flare observed early on 08 Jun. A peak flux of 1,030 pfu was observed at 08/0800 UTC. Current 10 MeV flux values are reading at about 35 pfu. The 100 MeV proton flux ended. The event began at 08/0225 UTC, peaked at 08/0625 UTC (8.85 pfu) and ended at 08/1455 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 12 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1 (Minor) levels through 09 June. A chance for S1 levels are possible on 10 Jun and a slight chance exists for 11 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to transient passage. The IMF became more stable in the latter half of the period. Total field peaked at 7 nT early, before settling in at or near 3-5 nT. Bz reached -5 nT early, but is now +/- 3nT. Solar wind speed values are not reliable for the period, but indicated decreasing speeds from 525 km/s to 400 km/s. Phi was positive early, then became variable after 08/1900 UTC. .Forecast... Enhanced conditions are expected for the remainder of 09 Jun due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. By around midday on 10 Jun, CME effects from the 08 Jun CME are likely to cause enhanced parameters that persist through 11 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 09 Jun with continued weak CH HSS influence. Active to moderate (G2) storm levels are expected on 10 Jun due to CME effects from the 08 June M9.7 event. Active to minor (G1) storm levels are likely on 11 Jun as the CME impacts slowly decline.