Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
830 FXXX12 KWNP 090031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels due to numerous M-class flare activity. Region 3697 (S17W72, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the largest event of the period in the form of a long-duration M9.7/1f flare at 08/0149 UTC. Associated with this event was filament ejecta to the north and west, a 894 km/s Type II sweep, a Type IV sweep and a 460 sfu Tenflare. This region also produced five additional M-class flares, all less than M5. The region continued to be the largest and most complex spot group on the disk and showed little changed over the period. Region 3709 (S10E67, Cai/beta) produced an M1.8/Sf at 08/0028 UTC. Regions 3698 (N22W75, Eao/beta) and 3703 (S08W45, Dac/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in their intermediate spots. There appears to be a possible new region rotating onto the disk a few degrees to the east of Region 3709. An asymmetric-halo CME was first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 08/0148 UTC. A majority of the initial shock was viewed in the western quadrant and was related to the M9.7 flare mentioned above. Subsequent analysis and model output suggests an Earth impact midday on 10 June. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) through 10 Jun with a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong). Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux responded to the M9.7 flare, and reached a peak flux of 1,030 pfu at 08/0800 UTC. The 100 MeV proton flux exceeded event threshold and reached a peak flux of 8.85 pfu at 08/0625 UTC. Both flux values remain elevated. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 11 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at minor (S1) levels through 09 June, with a chance for S1 levels to continue into 10 Jun. There is a slight chance for S1 levels on 11 June. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to transient passage. The IMF became more stable in the latter half of the period. Total field peaked at 12 nT early, before settling at or near 5 nT. Bz reached -9 nT early, but is now +/- 5nT. Solar wind speed values are not reliable for the period, but are believed to be near 480 km/s. Phi was positive early, then became predominantly positive after about 08/0500 UTC. .Forecast... Enhanced conditions are expected on 09 Jun due to the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. By around midday on 10 Jun, CME effects from the 08 Jun CME are likely to cause enhanced parameters that persist through 11 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels early with transient passage. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 09 Jun with continued weak CH HSS influence. Active to moderate (G2) storm levels are expected on 10 Jun due to CME effects from the 08 June M9.7 event. Active to minor (G1) storm levels are likely on 11 Jun as the CME impacts slowly decline.