Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
494 FXXX12 KWNP 131231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 13 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... An isolated M1.2/1n flare from Region 3711 (S09E05, Cso/beta) put solar activity at moderate levels. Otherwise, sporadic low-level C-class flares were observed from Regions 3709 (S10W05, Cai/beta) and 3713 (S13E61, Dso/beta). Region 3709 was mostly unchanged, Region 3711 continued to decay, and Region 3713 appeared to be stable as it rotated further onto the visible disk. Out of the three new regions that were numbered during the period (AR 3714 (N14E17, Bxo/beta), AR 3715 (N17E42, Bxo/beta), and AR 3716 (N10E55, Dso/beta)), only 3716 seemed to hold together and grow slightly as it migrated across the disk. Region 3712 (S24E45, Dao/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in its intermediate and trailer spots, picked up a beta-gamma configuration, but remained mostly inactive. The remaining active regions were stable and relatively quiet. Analysis of the halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 12/2212 UTC, continues. If the source region is deemed to be from the M1 flare from Region 3711, initial indications point to an Earth-directed component with an expected arrival late day on 14 Jun to early on 15 Jun. However, confidence in this forecast remains very low to low, with limited imagery pointing towards this being a front-sided event. The filament eruption observed near S38E55 beginning at 12/1100 UTC was modeled and deemed to be a miss. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with a chance for isolated moderate activity (R1/Minor Radio Blackouts) through 15 Jun. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continues to skim just below the S1 threshold in response to the far sided halo CME from late on 11 Jun. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 15 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation levels on 13 Jun and eventually return to near background levels on 14-15 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters remained near background levels. Total field averaged near 4 nT, the Bz component turned mostly positive midway through the period, and wind speeds remained near 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Background conditions are anticipated through 13 Jun. By late on 14 Jun to early on 15 Jun, weak enhancements are possible in response to the potential arrival of the halo CME from 12 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, are anticipated through 13 Jun. By late on 14 Jun to early on 15 Jun, unsettled to active periods are expected, with a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels in response to the possible arrival of the halo CME from 12 Jun. Confidence remains low with this forecast due to the uncertainty of the source region of the halo CME.