Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
979 FXXX12 KWNP 060031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 06 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels due to a pair of M-flares from Region 3697 (S18W33, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Those included an M3.4/1f at 05/0856 UTC and an M2.6 at 05/1007 UTC. Slight growth and elongation was observed in the larger spot grouping of Region 3697 while the surrounding smaller spots appeared to be decaying. Slight growth was also observed in Regions 3698 (N22W43, Dai/beta), 3701 (S05W24, Dao/beta), and 3703 (S07W09, Dai/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. A filament eruption was noted near the NE limb in H-Alpha and GOES SUVI 304 imagery starting near 05/1600 UTC. Analysis and modelling efforts are ongoing for this event at the time of this writing. However, due to its NE location, the bulk of the CME is expected to miss north and behind Earths orbit. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to continue at moderate to high levels through 08 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 08 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 08 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were mildly enhanced, with solar wind speed decreasing from 500 km/s to 375 km/s by the end of the period. Total field ranged from 2-7 nT while the Bz component was between +/-6 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive through before rotating into a mostly negative orientation. .Forecast... Nominal levels are expected on 06-07 Jun. Enhanced conditions are expected on 08 Jun due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled levels at the end of the period. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 06-07 Jun. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 08 Jun due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.