685
FXXX12 KWNP 300031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 May 30 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to high levels this reporting period. Region
3697 (S18E56, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced numerous flares this period
with a long-duration X1.4 at 29/1437 UTC being the largest flare of the
period. This event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep of 878 km/s,
a Type IV radio sweep, and a tenflare of 300 sfu. Region 3691 (N27E06,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) was the culprit of M-class flare activity as well,
producing an M5.7 flare at 29/1841 UTC. New spots were noted near
N20E20, but remain unnumbered at this time as we await USAF observatory
reports to corroborate observations. The remaining numbered regions were
stable and relatively quiet.

The aforementioned X1.4 flare resulted in a partial halo CME first seen
in SOHO C2 imagery at approximately 29/1436 UTC. Initial modeling of
this event suggests the presence of a fast, at least a partially
Earth-directed component, that will arrive by late 31 May.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at high levels through 01 Jun,
with occasional M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and
a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels through 31 May. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 01
Jun primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters showed a mild enhancement after 29/0430 UTC. Total
field increased to 10 nT, while solar wind speed increased to
approximately 350 km/s. The Bz component was mostly north ranging from
-1 nT to +7 nT, but underwent a sustained southward deflection of -5 to
-6 nT late in the reporting period. Phi angle was positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to return to ambient-like levels
over the course of 30 May and remain there through 31 May. While the
bulk of the material from the 29 May CME is expected to miss behind
Earths orbit, influences from the CMEs flanking edge are likely to
cause enhancements in the solar wind by late 31 May and continue into 01
Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled periods are expected during the early hours of 30 May due to
lingering, weak transient effects from what is likely the shock from the
27 May limb event. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely
to commence by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking CME
effects from the aforementioned X1.4 flare and subsequent CME eruption
of 29 May.