Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
023 FXXX12 KWNP 241231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 24 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. Five R1 (Minor) events were observed during the last 24 hours. The largest was an M2.5 flare at 23/1320 UTC from Region 3679 (S09W73). Penumbral growth was observed in its intermediate spots over the past 24 hours. Region 3690 (N17E68, Hsx/alpha) was numbered near the NE limb. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk exhibited only minor changes. Three filament eruptions were observed. The first was a long N-S oriented feature centered near S40E60 that began erupting at the beginning of the UT day. The resulting CME was model and did not contain an Earth-directed component. The second was centered near S35E20 and began erupting after 23/0600 UTC. The third filament, centered near S15E05, began erupting ~23/0640 UTC. The latter two filament eruptions both produced CMEs that were analyzed and modeled. While the bulk of the ejecta was primarily moving south of Sun-Earth line, influence from the periphery of the CME may be observed at Earth late on 26 May. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate on 24-25 May, with a slight chance of X-class flares (R3/Strong) due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3679. A decrease to low level is likely on 26 May as Region 3679 rotates around the W limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to moderate levels over 24-26 May. There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm due to the potential from Region 3679 over 24-25 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The IMF of the solar wind was mildly enhanced, possibly due to the onset of a CIR ahead of an anticipated negative polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength reached 9 nT and the Bz component rotated as far south as 9 nT. Solar wind speeds remained relatively steady at ~375 km/s. Phi angle was positive early, then switched to a negative orientation for the latter half of the period. .Forecast... Enhancements in solar wind parameters are likely over the next three days due to coronal hole influence. Additional enhancements are possible on 26 May due to periphery of a passing CME that left the Sun on 23 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 24-26 May due primarily to anticipated CH HSS effects.