Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
454 FXXX12 KWNP 101231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jun 10 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels. Region 3697 (S19, L=349) produced an M1.0 flare at 09/2017 UTC, an M3.3 flare at 10/0609 UTC and an X1.5 flare at 10/1108 UTC. This region also produced additional C-class flares. The region is currently at, or just behind the WSW limb. An M4.4 flare was observed from behind the ESE limb from an unseen region. Region 3703 (S08W72, Dao/beta) exhibited some decay in the intermediate portion. Region 3709 (S08E35, Cai/beta) exhibited slight increase in spots in the trailer portion of this region. No new CMEs were detected this period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be at (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels through 10 Jun with a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3/Strong). On 11-12 Jun, a chance for moderate levels, and a slight chance for isolated X-class flare activity is forecasted. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux alert ended. The alert began at 08/0255 UTC, peaked at 1,030 pfu at 08/0800 UTC and ended at 09/2140 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 12 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain slightly enhanced through 10 May and decrease to normal levels on 11-12 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from ~425-360 km/s. Total field was at 4-6 nT and Bz was +3 to- 5 nT. Phi was in a mostly positive orientation through the period. .Forecast... By around midday or so on 10 Jun, CME effects from the 08 Jun CME are likely to cause enhanced parameters that persist through 11 Jun. A return to more nominal levels is likely on 12 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Active to moderate (G2) storm levels are expected later on 10 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of the 08 Jun CME. Active to Minor (G1) storm levels are likely on 11 Jun as CME impacts slowly decline. A return to quiet and unsettled levels is expected on 12 Jun.