039
FXUS63 KDLH 132307
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
607 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms will occur across the Northland into
  this evening. A strong storm or two will be possible with
  gusty winds and small hail the main threats. Fog may develop
  tonight after the storms/clouds move off.

- Chances for thunderstorms return over the weekend into next
  week with a warm and moist airmass building through that time.

- Although still early, there will be a chance for severe storms
  and heavy rain at times, especially late weekend into the
  middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

This afternoon through Friday night...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon over northern
Minnesota may drop into central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin late afternoon/evening before dissipating. MUCAPE
values were 500-1000j/kg over northern Minnesota with effective
deep layer shear of 25 to 30 knots. Soundings reveal drier low
levels with an inverted-V appearance. Low level lapse rates were
also steep, 8-9.5c/km. We`re just entering peak heating and a
strong storm or two will be possible into early evening with
small hail and gusty winds possible. The storms will end later
this evening and skies will clear. Some patchy fog will
develop tonight.

Dry conditions are expected on Friday with upper ridging
building into the Northern Plains. Highs will be in the
seventies but off lake winds will keep lakeside areas a bit
cooler.

Southerly low level flow and warm air/moisture advection may
cause some showers/storms to move into southwest portions of the
Northland later Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday...

Chances for showers/storms will increase Saturday into Saturday
night with a shortwave moving northeast and continued
warm/moisture advection. Chances (60-80%) peak Saturday night
from far eastern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. CAPE will
gradually build but values will be marginal for severe through
Saturday night. However, given how moist we`ve been, there will
be at least a low chance for some minor flooding.

Greater instability will be in place Sunday with PWAT values
from 1.3-1.6" and surface temperatures in the upper seventies
to mid-eighties leading to MUCAPE values 1000-2500j/kg across
the Northland during the afternoon. Shear values will also be
supportive for severe storms. However, one limiting factor will
be forcing as a shortwave exits by early afternoon leaving
behind low amplitude ridging. There will be weak low level
convergence though and there will be at least a low chance for
strong to severe storms during the afternoon overnight period.

Monday through Wednesday...

The Northland will be under southwest flow aloft through mid-
week. High PWAT values 1.5-2", per the GFS, are expected to be
over the area or near which will aid in producing plenty of
instability. The stronger southwest flow aloft will produce
adequate deep layer shear. There is still uncertainty regarding
the location of low level forcing as seen in the global models
and with variations from run to run. The main takeaway though is
there is potential for both severe storms and heavy rain early
to at least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions prevail outside of any MVFR showers or
thunderstorms through 03Z this evening. Mist may form at area
terminals after 06Z tonight and last into 14Z tomorrow morning.
Light and variable winds occur after 02Z tonight through the
rest of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Gusty westerly winds around 25 knots will continue this
afternoon but diminish this evening. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect through 7PM CDT. A few thunderstorms will be
possible and they may be strong producing small hail and gusty
winds to 35 knots.

Winds will become onshore Friday and continue Friday night but
be at or less than 15 knots.

Easterly winds will be a bit stronger on Saturday, from 8 to 15
knots with higher gusts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...Melde