912
FXUS63 KDLH 131434
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
934 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers with a few isolated storms today. Some
  storms could be strong enough to produce pea sized hail and
  gusts to 40 mph.

- Quiet weather for Friday

- Active weather returns Saturday with severe risk increasing
  Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Current conditions/This morning:

Thunderstorm activity has dissipated across the region. A few
areas of patchy to dense fog have sprung up in the wake of the
precipitation. This low cloud is not expected to linger long
after sunrise.

Today:

Cooler temperatures today with only a few spots climbing into the
lower 80s. Most locations will remain in the 70s. Cyclonic flow
aloft as a shortwave trough digs through the region will
generate some showers and isolated storms through this afternoon
and evening. Convective parameter space does not look to be
overly impressive with bulk shear around 40 kts and instability
of a couple hundred J/kg. Enough to generate some gusty winds
around 40 mph as well as some pea size hail.

Friday/Saturday:

High pressure and quiet weather settles in for Friday with highs in
the 70s. This high pressure does not stick around long as it is
quickly brushed off to the east for the weekend with southerly flow
streaming back into the Northland. The increased moisture advection
back across the region will lend itself to PoPs inundating the
forecast.

Sunday into early next week/ Next Severe Threat

There are some early signatures in the 00Z suite of deterministic
guidance that suggests severe potential may once again ramp up
Sunday and into early next week. We will be looking at some warmer
temps as a thermal ridge nudges into the Northland. Current highs
for Sunday are in the 80s. The aforementioned southerly flow
will promote PW increasing towards 1.3" Our environment will
certainly be unstable the main question will be if we have any
good synoptic features to act as strong triggers. Both the Euro
and the GFS highlight a cold front approaching from the west
but timing still remains contested. Depending on the evolution
of this boundary both Sunday and Monday could become quite
active weather days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Patchy fog this morning will erode within the first couple hours of
the forecast period. VFR conditions are expected through the day with
diurnal cumulus developing in the afternoon. Northwesterly winds
will be gusting around 25 kts. A few showers and isolated storms
will develop in the afternoon and persist into the early evening
hours. A few storms could produce some pea sized hail and erratic
wind gusts. Lastly, a few models are beginning to hint a a fog
signal for tomorrow morning but uncertainty remains very high at
this time.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 930 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Westerly winds were increasing this morning and that has helped
dissipate the fog. Webcams along the North Shore showed the
dissipation in the fog. We expanded the Small Craft Advisory
some due to gusts up to 25 knots as seen in area observation
this morning. Showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected
to develop today and then diminish by late evening. A strong
storm or two may occur with gusts to 35 knots and pea size hail
the main threats. Winds at or below 15 knots are then expected
into Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ142>147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Melde