Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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008 FXUS63 KDLH 272013 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 313 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers continue through the afternoon, moving east through sunset. Thunder may be possible (20-30%) south of Brainerd to Hayward line. No severe weather is anticipated. - Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible tomorrow (20- 40%). - Quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday with rain chances returning Thursday night. - Patchy frost is possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Best chances will be across northern MN for Wed morning and NW WI for Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light rain showers are ongoing across the Northland, and are likely more of nuisance showers for those outside trying to enjoy their cloudy Memorial Day. Parts of SW MN have seen some clearing today providing for some lightning and little better convective environment. As the surface low pushes SE this evening, some of that better instability may skirt across our southern border, roughly along a Brainerd to Hayward line, where a few claps of thunder may be heard. Otherwise, rain shower chances continue to push E/SE through the evening and into NW WI after midnight. Tuesday`s high temperatures will be cooler, albeit still in the 60s, behind today`s system. A secondary shortwave will drop into the region from Manitoba bringing additional rain chances. With plenty of clouds and similar convective parameters as today (low CAPE, low sheer), scattered airmass showers and maybe an occasional storm will be possible across the area. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday and Thursday allowing high temperatures to rise back to near or just above seasonal average, along with a short period of quiet weather. Mostly clear skies will allow morning temperatures to drop bringing patchy frost concerns across northern MN for Wed morning and NW WI for Thursday morning. Thursday night rain chances return as a troughing sets up in the Plains setting up an unsettled pattern that will last through the weekend. High temperatures stay right around seasonal average through Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Main aviation concern are rain showers moving slowly from west to east this afternoon. There is a window for thunderstorm development this afternoon especially if the clouds clear out through sunset. No severe weather is expected. Main hazards will be lightning and temporary MVFR visibilities. Wind N/NW less than 10 mph. Rain showers possible again in the morning (~8Z) as a second upper level wave moves by, mainly affecting KDLH and KHYR. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Winds will be 15 knots or less through Tuesday night. They will become northwest tonight and veer to north late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds will continue to veer Wednesday becoming onshore during the day Wednesday and remaining at or below 15 knots. The exception on Wednesday will be in the Twin Ports area where they will be a bit stronger. Easterly winds will occur into Thursday and be a bit stronger yet for all areas, generally 10 to 20 knots with a few higher gusts. The strongest winds will occur in the Twin Ports area. There may be some spotty thunderstorms this afternoon through Tuesday over the far western part of the lake. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LR AVIATION...LR MARINE...Melde