Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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080 FXUS63 KDLH 230926 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 426 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain showers and thunderstorms will resume this afternoon. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the western Brainerd Lakes. - Another low will bring light rain to the region. Rainfall amounts have decreased significantly since the last forecast. - A few more chances for precipitation this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Thursday/Weekend System: Our dry period this morning will be short lived, as both global and high res models hint at chances, albeit slight, for more light rain starting as early as Thursday afternoon due to WAA from the south ahead of this weekend`s system. In addition, increase in instability and low level lapse rates, as well as 0-6km shear around 30 kts, some storms could be strong to severe in the Brainerd Lakes region. Main threats will be hail up to an inch and damaging winds from dry microbursts. The main system will reach us Friday morning, and looks like it could be another soaker. PWATs are not nearly as high for this system but will still have PWATs an inch or more across most of our area. The track of the low has shifted west and the residence time for the heaviest precipitation has shifted west with it. Therefore, rainfall amounts have decreased. Widespread quarter to half inch is expected, with higher amounts along the North Shore and north central Minnesota. Very little instability with this system will limit thunderstorm formation, but a few embedded storms are not out of the question. The system should exit into Canada throughout the day Saturday. Sunday-Next Week: A deeper trough in the Mountain West will develop a surface low Sunday that will likely take a more southern track than the previous systems. However, ensembles are all over the board with the placement of this low, and this will determine whether we get another round of rain showers into early next week in the northern quadrant of the low. Mid next week, the Upper Midwest breathes a sigh if relief as we may have a full day`s dry weather as a ridge moves over the Northern Plains. This should be short-lived, however as an active pattern resumes for the late week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 An MVFR deck has developed over the Iron Range and Borderlands, currently affecting INL, and is slowly moving south towards HIB. There is a possibility that it could reach DLH before morning, but models show it dissipating before then. Pockets of fog are also possible, but should quickly rise again. Otherwise VFR for most of the day. This evening, there will be chances (40-50%) for showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of BRD ahead of a larger system bringing rain showers Thursday night. Some storms are capable of being severe with large hail and damaging winds. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Winds will decrease throughout the morning along the North Shore and waves have decreased as well, so the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. Winds will increase again however this evening and remain gusty through Friday. Occasional gales are possible along the North Shore, but confidence is not high enough to issue a gale headline. Gale potential will continue to be monitored today. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KML AVIATION...KML MARINE...KML