233
FXUS63 KDLH 271803
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
103 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 746 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

The Dense Fog Advisory has been cancelled as the patchy dense
fog in the Twin Ports and along parts of the South Shore has
dissipated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning will disperse by late morning.

- Rain showers enter from the west today with some isolated thunderstorms
  possible (20-30%). No severe weather is anticipated.

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible tomorrow
  (20- 40%).

- Quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday with frost possible
  both mornings. Best chances will be across northern MN for Wed
  morning and NW WI for Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Current conditions:

Satellite this morning is picking up on some fog development along
the South Shore and into the lower basin south of Superior. A few
sensors across the region are also reporting some intermittent
reductions in visibilities. Not nearly as widespread as models had
suggested over the past several runs with the recent runs now vastly
backing off the coverage. Based off current trends we have
trimmed the Dense Fog Advisory a bit. Some patchy fog can still
be expected across the region as dewpoint depressions are
largely within 1 degree and winds remain light. Any fog that
does manage to develop over the next few hours will not linger
long through the morning.

Today:

Radar shows and expansive line of precipitation advancing across
western MN this morning propelled by and upper level trough
digging across the Northern Plains. Rain will enter the Brainerd
Lake region after sunrise and spread east through the day.
PWATs remain less then an 1" which is to be expected as we lack
a strong moisture connection with this system. This will lead to
scattered rain showers producing less then a quarter inch of
rain. The exception will be any location that manages to see an
isolated thunderstorm roll over. Instability does increase a bit
in the afternoon but lack of shear to work with will lead to
storms quickly collapsing on themselves. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

Tuesday:

Tuesday will see an upper level low diving southeast out of Ontario
and through the Northland. Cyclonic turning aloft infused with
low and mid level moisture will lead to a vast cumulus field
enveloping the region. Scattered to numerous amounts of showers
will envelop the Northland. Instability and shear are similar
to the previous day with enough for some rumbles of thunder but
overall short-lived.

Mid Week Frost:

High pressure builds in for Wednesday allowing for a break in the
repetitive precipitation patterns. However, this will lead to
some frost concerns as this air mass ushers in some cooler
temperatures. Frost Advisories may be needed Wed morning across
northern MN and again Thursday morning for NW WI.

Extended Forecast:

Active weather is expected to return towards the end of the week as
the upper level ridge weakens and is pushed out of the region from a
deepening trough across the northern Rockies. Timing still remains
in flux as escorting the dry air that will be in place seems to be
causing ensembles some difficulties. Based on cluster analysis
we can expect the next active pattern to persist into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Main aviation concern are rain showers moving slowly from west
to east this afternoon. There is a window for thunderstorm
development this afternoon especially if the clouds clear out through
sunset. No severe weather is expected. Main hazards will be
lightning and temporary MVFR visibilities. Wind N/NW less than
10 mph. Rain showers possible again in the morning (~8Z) as a
second upper level wave moves by, mainly affecting KDLH and HKYR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 746 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light winds today with minimal wave action. Light northwest
winds persist into Tuesday, although some gusts up to 10 to 15
knots can be expected tonight into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...LR
MARINE...Rothstein