283
FXUS63 KDLH 081145
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
645 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some morning sunshine, then a 20-30% chance for showers/storms
  this afternoon/evening. A few storms could contain gusty winds
  to ~40 mph and pea size hail.

- Quiet weather Sunday and Monday.

- Periodic shower/storm chances Tuesday and beyond with
  temperatures warming up.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

An upper-level trough and some mid-level frontogenesis is
causing some light to moderate rain out there this morning. This
will continue moving southeast and should clear northwest
Wisconsin by mid-morning or so. In the wake of that, there
should be a period of partially sunny skies that will promote
some diurnal heating. Most models, similar in many ways to
yesterday, suggest some pretty dry conditions developing today
(min RH to ~30%) with steep low-level lapse rates as high as
8-9C/km by the afternoon and early evening. As a result, some
blustery northwest winds are expected along with the development
of isolated showers and storms. These will be aided
synoptically by several weak passing waves aloft this afternoon
associated with a broader upper-level low over Ontario. Without
a lot of moisture, many to most places likely won`t see much
shower/storm activity, but for those that do, the steep low-
level lapse rates could promote some fairly robust downdrafts
that could be capable of producing some locally strong wind
gusts around 40 to 45 mph or so, along with perhaps some pea
size hail. After sunset, showers/storms diminish leading to
quiet weather.

On Sunday, temperatures are trending down a smidge with more
upper-level waves cycling through. Some relatively cooler
northwest flow may promote more stratus clouds through the day.
Highs will likely top out in the 60s and winds will again be a
bit blustery.

High pressure moves in Sunday night into Monday, and Monday is
looking like a slightly warmer and sunny day. Going into
Tuesday, there`s starting to be a little more model agreement on
a low pressure system developing and traversing west-to-east
somewhere in the vicinity of the Canadian border. An attendant
cold/occluded front could promote a line of showers and storms.
At this time, convective parameters look pretty unfavorable for
severe weather (decent shear but low CAPE). We`ll have to keep
an eye on how this evolves, but as of now, it doesn`t appear
overly concerning.

A fairly active pattern may continue into the middle and late
week as models hint at a return to southerly flow (and warmer
weather) following Tuesday`s system, then potentially more
upper-level waves that could promote showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Rain will impact HYR for the next hour or two, but with
conditions remaining VFR. Then, several hours of sunshine and
VFR conditions through the morning before more clouds start to
develop this afternoon. Wind speeds will pick up from the
northwest, and all terminals should see gusts around 15 to 20 kt
through the day. Going into this afternoon, isolated showers and
thunderstorms may develop (20-30% chance at any terminal). Right
now, it`s looking like the highest thunder threat may be at
HIB/DLH/HYR, but that could very well change in the next few
hours. In any case, any showers/storms that develop will be
brief and widely scattered. Main hazards from them include gusty
and erratic winds up to around 35-40 kt, pea size hail, and
heavy rain that could result in temporary MVFR restrictions.
These shower/storm chances are expected to end shortly after
sunset, at which point winds will also lighten up. VFR
conditions are expected through tonight.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

West winds will pick up in speed today around 10-15 mph and
gusting to 20 mph. Winds will hold steady or decrease a bit with
similar directions going into Sunday. There will be a bit of
rain this morning, and perhaps isolated showers/storms this
afternoon/evening (~20% chance). Winds become light Sunday night
and swing around to the northeast.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS