Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
886
FNUS73 KDLH 051037
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for 2024 MN Wildfire Academy...MNICS IMT3
National Weather Service Duluth MN
537 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on June 05.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Light and variable winds early this morning, quickly becoming
southwesterly and gradually increasing in speed to around 10 mph
by noon with gusts around 20 mph. Winds become west to
northwesterly this afternoon, strengthening to 10-15 mph sustained
and gusting to around 25 mph.
Mostly sunny skies this morning, then scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Exact timing
of the showers/storms is tricky due to the scattered nature that
is expected, but the most likely timing is 1 PM to 9 PM. In this
time window, expect on-and-off showers and storms mixed with
periods of sunshine. There is a 5% chance that some of these
storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing hail up to
quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. With passing showers and
storms this afternoon, expect occasional gusty and erratic winds.
While the current forecast rain amount is less than a tenth of an
inch, it is certainly possible that there could be higher amounts
approaching around a quarter to half an inch if storms track
right over the site.
A brief break in rain is possible tonight, but additional light
rain showers are expected to redevelop tonight and linger into
Thursday. Thunder is not expected with these showers. Winds will
remain gusty from the northwest going into Thursday.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers in the morning, then rain showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 13 mph with gusts to
around 23 mph shifting to the west 12 to 13 mph
with gusts to around 23 mph late in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 5300 ft AGL late in
the morning, then decreasing to 2400 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 16 mph increasing to northwest 25 to
28 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (4200-23100 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (60100-68200 knot-ft) late in the
morning, then increasing to excellent
(91100-117200 knot-ft) late in the afternoon
decreasing to good (53700 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.06 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC MC
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 20 30 40 40 50 60 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 3 3 3
Temp............57 57 58 61 67 68 68 68 70 68 67 67
RH..............83 80 76 72 61 59 57 57 53 57 56 54
20 FT wind dir..S SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..2 4 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 12 12 11
20 FT wind gust.8 10 14 18 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 22
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.8 1.4 1.7 3.6 3.8 3.4 5.3 4.7 4.0 2.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W NW NW
Transp wind spd.9 10 10 15 16 21 18 23 25 28 26 25
Haines index....5 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10004 5 7 18 23 65 60 68 117 112 91 54
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
early in the evening. Slight chance of rain
showers after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2000, then 2 until 2200, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
early in the evening then 23 mph overnight.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph decreasing to 14 to 23
mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (24100-40500 knot-ft) decreasing
to poor to fair (7900-26200 knot-ft) early in
the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50 20 10 10 10 20
LAL.............3 2 1 1 1 1
Temp............64 62 57 55 53 51
RH..............63 65 75 80 80 86
20 ft wind......W 11 W 10 W 8 W 9 W 10 W 11
20 ft wind gust.22 19 16 18 19 20
Mix hgt (ft)....1900 1000 600 1300 1400 1300
Transport wind..NW 24 W 14 W 15 NW 15 NW 20 NW 23
Haines index....4 4 4 4 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100041 12 8 17 25 26
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers in the morning, then chance of
rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to
around 27 mph.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 23 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34100-42000 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (69400-104500 knot-ft) early in the
morning.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 30 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............50 51 54 56
RH..............86 83 71 64
20 FT wind......W 11G23 NW 15G25 NW 16G27 NW 16G27
Mix hgt (ft)....1700 3600 3800 4000
Transport wind..NW 23 NW 28 NW 29 NW 30
Haines index....3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100034 86 93 104
$$
Forecaster...Josh
Requested by...Chris Bergquist
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415608.0/DLH
.DELDT 06/04/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Christopher.bergquist@state.mn.us,woodrow.unruh@noaa.gov,afsrock@stcloudstate.edu,wesley.belanger@state.mn.us,brad.hopkins@noaa.gov,josh.donatell@state.mn.us,lori.karau@usda.gov,milocke@paulbunyan.net,nws.duluth@noaa.gov