377
FXUS63 KDMX 090856
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
356 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mostly sunny today, with winds turning breezy

- Periodic chances for showers and storms return Tuesday through the
work week

- Temperatures turn much warmer by mid to late week, with values in
the 80s to low 90s

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Dry and quiet conditions remain over Iowa this morning, though
looking at regional radar can see an ongoing MCS over much of Kansas
and into Missouri, which per satellite imagery can see cloud debris
from this system covering portions of southwestern Iowa, while the
rest of the state sees mostly clear skies. Can expect this cloud
cover to push across the southern half of the state for the
remainder of the morning as the complex of storms further south
continue to exit the region, gradually clearing into the late
morning/early afternoon. Temperatures have been on the comfortable
side this morning, with values in the 50s to low 60s, along with
light and variable winds. As upper level ridging further north with
surface high pressure continues to move overhead across the region,
can expect dry conditions as temperatures reach into the upper 70s
to low 80s today, with skies becoming mostly sunny. Increasing winds
out of the northwest will result in breezy conditions later this
morning through the afternoon, with gusts upwards of 25-35 mph
possible, especially over northeastern Iowa. Winds relax into the
evening, with overnight lows falling into the 50s. The start of the
work week will be similar as high pressure slowly makes as exit
Monday, with highs through the 70s under mostly sunny skies and
lighter winds out of the northeast, gradually shifting southeast by
the evening.

Monday evening into Tuesday, low level flow turns more
southwesterly, bringing a push of weak warm air advection and at
least some moisture return to Iowa ahead of a frontal boundary
attached to a shortwave tracking eastward across the Midwest.
Overall forcing looks to be on the lower end, along with CAPE
values below 1000J/kg despite bulk shear values around 30-35
kts. Looking closer into model soundings, low level dry air
looks to be a potential issue, which may allow for limited
potential for shower and storm activity. If anything were to
develop, conditions look more favorable over northern Iowa, with
showers and a weak storm or two possible Tuesday morning. Later
on into the afternoon to evening, details get a bit more
uncertain, as deterministic models have differing solutions, as
the NAM suggests dry conditions returning into the afternoon
while the GFS shows redeveloping activity as the low level jet
begins to strengthen. Again, with similar environment
conditions, am not expecting any potential for severe weather at
this time. SPC highlights the entire state with a general
thunder risk, which is agreeable given the uncertainties that
exists regarding evolution of any activity that were to develop.


Beyond Tuesday, upper level northwest flow will largely continue
through the work week, in which several waves passing through within
this larger scale flow are expected to result in additional chances
for showers and storms each day this week. Another shortwave passing
through Wednesday afternoon to evening looks to contain better
forcing, with bulk shear values around 30-35kts and CAPE values a
bit higher around 1000-1500J/kg, though largely displaced behind the
front. As expected given timing out ahead of this event, various
solutions in terms of location of this activity are present, so will
not get more specific in terms of additional details at this time.
This trend of active weather looks to continue by the end of the
work week as the northwest flow remains prominent, with periods of
showers and storms expected. A large area of thermal ridging across
the Western CONUS generally looks to push into the Midwest THursday
and into the weekend, with highs expected in the 80s to low 90s. A
more defined trough lifting northwest out of the Desert Southwest
looks to move into the region by Saturday, which may hold a better
potential to see a few strong to possibly severe storms. Will be
keeping a close eye on the details as more information becomes
known.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the period. Winds will
becoming more northeasterly overnight and Sunday, increasing by
Sunday afternoon. Northeast sites KMCW/KALO may see gusts of
20-25 kts in the afternoon.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Hagenhoff