Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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236 FXUS63 KDTX 071958 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 358 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Decreasing wind this evening and decreasing clouds tonight into Saturday morning. - Showers return quickly mid to late Saturday afternoon and spread across the area Saturday night. A rumble of thunder is possible south. - A stray shower is possible Sunday with a weak cold front leading to slightly below normal temperatures Monday. - Cool early week conditions are followed by a warming trend back into the 80s by late week. && .DISCUSSION... Breezy and cool conditions continue for the balance of today and this evening around the south flank of broad northern Ontario low pressure. Afternoon radar and satellite data indicate a favorable tendency for light showers toward the Tri Cities and northern Thumb but still just spotty coverage. This is associated with a smaller scale wave sliding across Lower Mi providing localized forcing along with peak daytime heating within the larger scale mid level cold pool. Model analysis fields also show a mid level short wave ridge across the Midwest set to follow across the Great Lakes late tonight. A rapid subsidence transition then leads to decreasing clouds with a weak surface high pressure reflection through Saturday morning. Westerly surface wind holds around 5 knots to prevent full radiational cooling for low temperatures around 50 by sunrise, slightly below normal for early June. An equally rapid transition back to a pattern of showers occurs later Saturday through Saturday night as Plains low pressure moves into the Midwest and Great Lakes. Today`s 12Z models are in good agreement on a plume of mid level moisture returning into Lower Mi ahead of the surface wave with slightly faster onset timing Saturday afternoon rather than by Saturday evening compared to earlier forecast cycles. The faster timing is tied backing flow ahead of the mid level wave and associated DCVA driving increased isentropic lift and theta-e advection, although with still anemic instability for low thunderstorm potential. The 12Z HREF run exhibits both near zero surface based and MUCAPE as the surface wave and weak cold front move across the region and exit eastward by sunrise Sunday morning. The Saturday night wave transitions the large scale mid level pattern away from the uncommon west to east configuration to more of a trough-ridge-trough set up Sunday into Monday. This results in reinforcement of cool air into the Great Lakes with another front moving down from Canada Sunday afternoon and night. The latest model data is again in reasonable agreement on mid afternoon timing which allows temperatures a chance to rise into the lower 70s before clouds thicken with a stray shower late in the day. The inherited borderline slight/chance POPs are preferred and maintained in this forecast cycle. The bulk of the cool air reinforcement then arrives Sunday night in time to start Monday out with another round of below normal readings in the 60s. && .MARINE... Winds weaken overnight to generally below 20kts as broad low pressure over northern Ontario shifts further east. Weak low pressure swings into the southern Great Lakes Saturday bringing widespread showers though little to no increase in westerly flow is expected. Winds shift northwesterly following this system as deepening low pressure over western Quebec results in tightening of the local gradient. Wind gusts between 20-25kts likely over the bulk of the central Great Lakes throughout the day Sunday. Areas of potential overachievement with gusts potentially nearing 30kts are the Saginaw Bay due to the warmer waters and subsequent more unstable thermal profile, as well as northern Lake Huron given the favorable fetch. Lighter winds (10-20 knots) then arrive by Monday as high pressure builds overhead. This high remains in place for the first of half of the work week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 122 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024 AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail today as SE MI resides under a cooler airmass due to the influence of a low pressure system located over the northeast portion of Michigan. The cooler air has allowed mixing depths to tap into stronger winds aloft, which will bring sporadic westerly wind gusts on the order of 25-30 knots through the daylight hours. Otherwise, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out for the remainder of the day, but the bulk of shower activity is expected to hold over the Thumb. Wind gust and the low shower potential will wane after sunset. Generally clear skies expected overnight along with lighter winds. For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for exceeding crosswind threshold this afternoon and evening. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...BT MARINE.......KDK AVIATION.....AM You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.