032
FNUS73 KDTX 231854
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Graham Lake Fen...MIDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
254 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry and warm conditions today with highs around 80
and min RH dropping below 30 percent.
Some moisture returns on Friday with temperatures taking a step up
into the lower 80s. Shower and storm chances then arrive
late Friday into parts of Saturday.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds up to 6 mph.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Good (MAX...452).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........10  12  14  20  26  32
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............74  76  78  79  79  80
RH..............42  38  35  34  34  33
EYE LVL WND DIR.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.4   5   5   5   6   6
EYE LVL WND GST.6   7   7   8   8   10
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.3 4.3 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.2
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISPER....164 303 428 447 479 520

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent)becoming mostly
                    cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the evening. Chance of showers
                    in the late evening and overnight, then showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...25).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........38     50     59     69     79     75
WEATHER COV.....              CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............78     74     65     62     61     62
RH..............35     40     52     62     65     70
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE     E      SE     SE     SE     S
EYE LVL WND SPD.6      7      7      6      6      5
EYE LVL WND GST.10     12     11     10     10     10
MIX HGT (KFT)...4600   500    400    300    300    300
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      3      3
SMOKE DISPER....462    50     44     39     38     30

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then chance of showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 6 mph...becoming west around 8
                    mph with gusts to around 17 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 10 mph...becoming west 13 to 17
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Excellent (MAX...626).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........71        67        56        26
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY    CHANCE    CHANCE    S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
TEMP............63        66        71        76
RH..............75        78        69        55
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 5       S 6       W 8       W 8
EYE LEVEL WIND..10        12        14        16
MIX HGT (FT)....400       1200      3300      4900
HAINES INDEX....3         4         4         5
SMOKE DISPER....26        100       463       720

$$
Forecaster...Tilley
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415016.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov