Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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817 FXUS63 KDVN 272322 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 622 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong storms possible through early this evening. - Scattered storms possible Tuesday afternoon. - Wet pattern late in the week into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 This afternoon into early this evening: Deep trough in the Great Lakes region has spokes of vorticity in the northwest flow. One of those comes across this afternoon into early this evening which will trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms. SPC has a MRGL risk, level 1 of 5, over the entire forecast area. Any stronger storm may produce winds up to 60 mph and hail up to one inch. These storms will be moving southeast at 45 mph so heavy rainfall would be brief. With the loss of heating the storms will end by early this evening. Overnight: Partly cloudy skies and comfortable temperatures with lows bottoming out in the lower 50s at most locations. Tuesday: Another vorticity maximum arrives from the northwest during the afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate weak shear and minimal instability (less than today) so strong storms are not expected. Highs in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Wednesday through Thursday: The deep trough shifts to the east while a high pressure ridge builds into our area. This allows for a delightful couple of days, with plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Enjoy the respite from the recent bouts of storminess but unfortunately this nice weather will be brief. Highs will be in the comfortable upper 60s to mid 70s, with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Friday through early next week: Another wet pattern setting up as global models indicate a return to a zonal flow. A series of short waves in the flow will trigger several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. However, way too early to determine the severe threat or rain amounts. Stay tuned! Highs will be in the 70s Friday and Saturday, and into the 80s Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A fast moving area of scattered thunderstorms will exit TAF sites before 00z. In the wake of these gusty storms, wind will remain below 12kts the rest of the evening as skies become mostly clear. A few showers may linger through 01z, but we`re looking at a relatively quiet night. Tuesday afternoon another round of scattered showers and a few storms are expected to move through, with locally gusty winds and small hail possible. For now, a prob30 group for showers is included. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1110 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Rainfall the past 24 hours was not as widespread as two days ago. Although not as heavy, amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch fell across northeast Iowa and parts of Wisconsin and Illinois. River forecasts have not changed all that much. Crests are working down the tributary rivers of eastern Iowa with new crests working down the tributaries of northern Illinois. The flood watches continues for the Skunk River at Augusta, IA and the Mississippi River at New Boston. Attenuation of the flood crest on the Skunk River brings a lower confidence that flood stage will be achieved at Augusta, Iowa. On the Mississippi, the forecast rise at New Boston is due to a combination of routed flow and the expected Cedar/Iowa flow arriving immediately downstream. The Cedar/Iowa flow will result in backwater effects but there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of this flow. If the Cedar/Iowa flow and Mississippi routed flow constructively interfere with each other, that is arrive at the same time, then the probability of New Boston achieving flood stage is much higher. If deconstructive interference occurs, that is the flows arrive at different times, the the probability of New Boston reaching flood stage would be lower. Right now the probabilities of New Boston reaching flood stage are about 45-50 percent. After a brief reprieve this week, the active weather pattern will resume next weekend and into the following week. The Climate Prediction Center has a 35-38 percent probability favoring above normal precipitation into the first week of June. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Haase LONG TERM...Haase AVIATION...Ervin HYDROLOGY...08