766
FXUS63 KDVN 301529
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1029 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet, low humidity weather through the short term as
  precipitation approaches the area late.

- Active weather continues through the long term with daily
  chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper level ridging will keep the area quiet as high pressure
is in place at the surface. Later in the period, the ridge
starts to shift south as the first shortwave in a busy weekend
its quick to enter the area. Before this, high pressure will
continue to bring in drier air from the east leading to another
pleasant day across the area. Highs in the 70s with low humidity
is expected. Later in the period, high level clouds move into
the area and help to keep lows tonight 3 to 6 degrees warmer
than this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

There is run to run variability within the different models as well
as some differences between individual models through the period.
They are in vary good agreement on an active west to east zonal flow
through the period with several shortwave troughs and ridging moving
across the area through next week. This will result in several
chances of showers and storms timed roughly every 24 hours through
the period. There is a stronger shortwave arriving Tuesday into
Wednesday with the ECWMF solution faster than the GFS at this time.

Friday into Saturday, ridging that has brought pleasant weather to
the area in the short term will have moved to the east of the area.
A shortwave to our southwest will approach the area on Friday. THe
ECWMF is the most aggressive model having precipitation moving into
southeast Iowa Friday morning and continuing through the day while
the other models delay it to the arrival of stronger forcing Friday
night into Saturday morning. How far north any shower and
thunderstorm activity spreads Friday night will be dependent how far
north the surface low and warm front tracks into Missouri with the
GFS the farthest south solution keeping the bulk of precipitation
south of Interstate 80. The NBM continues to have low pops spreading
from west to east through the day on Friday accounting for model
differences.

High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will be in the mid to upper
70s before warming into the lower to mid 80s Sunday through
Wednesday. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s Friday
night and Saturday night then warming to 60 to 65 degrees Sunday
night through Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected as high pressure remains over the
area. Clouds will move in later but we will still see VFR
conditions. No sig wx impacts to aviation expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

No changes in flood categories on area rivers this morning.
Flooding continues on the Wapsipinicon, Iowa, Cedar, and lower
portions of the Mississippi River.

Major flooding will continue on the Wapsipinicon River near De
Witt until the middle of next week. The river will remain
between 13.1 and 13.3 feet through Monday. Additional rainfall
is forecast Friday night and again early next week, but model
trends have been lower with QPF through the next 7 days.
Significant changes to the river forecast is not expected in the
coming days.

The crest on the lower portion of the Iowa River is near
Oakville this morning. On the mainstem Mississippi, Minor
flooding will continue from New Boston LD 17 downstream to
Burlington and also at Gregory Landing. Crests will occur late
this weekend and early next week.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Gibbs
HYDROLOGY...Gross