725
FXUS63 KDVN 281617
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1117 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible this afternoon into the early evening
  mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

- Quiet nice weather midweek, with low humidity and comfortable
  temperatures.

- Chances for precipitation return late in the week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A similar day to yesterday is forecast across the area. Quiet
morning with mostly clear skies for the morning. Temperatures
will be chilly for late May. In the late morning, another wave
approaches the area leading to clouds and the return of showers
and storms. This wave is about 6 hours earlier than yesterday,
so the better area for showers and storms will be east of the
Mississippi River this afternoon and into the evening. After
this wave moves through the area, expect quiet conditions for
the overnight into Wednesday.

As far as storms today go. First, Tds will be lower than
yesterday as the depth of decent BL moisture has decreased.
Mixing from heating today will likely drop Tds into the low 50s
to upper 40s. Second, the better forcing for ascent will be east
as well as the better lapse rates. This means that the better
chance for strong updrafts and hail will be east where the mrgl
risk is. There is ample deep layer shear so updraft organization
will occur. With the lower Tds we may have a better chance to
see gusty winds with the showers as inverted V soundings become
more prevalent. The best area for strong and severe storms will
be along and east of the Mississippi River this afternoon.
Coverage of showers will quickly decrease this evening as the
wave pulls out of the area. At the same time, a cold front with
this wave will drop Tds even more overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

To begin the period a cold front will be moving into the area
from the north as largescale NW flow keeps the area quiet and
cool. A high amplitude ridge builds in to end the week. This
ridging is short lived as the SW flow part of it moves into the
area on Friday with an immediate shortwave trough moving into
the area. This will begin the active weather weekend across the
area. Energetic flow regime continues into next week as a series
of shortwaves move quickly through the flow.

The beautiful weather Wednesday into Friday AM will see
dewpoints starting out in the 40s before the 50s creep back in
to end the week. Overall, highs on Wednesday behind a backdoor
cold front will be in the 60s to near 70 and with the low Tds
may actually feel chilly if you aren`t in the sun. Temperatures
moderate as moisture returns to the area Friday. This next
shortwave won`t have a lot of moisture to work with so CAPE will
be low, but showers and storms are possible Friday into Saturday
AM.

Into the weekend, it does not look like a washout as there will
be times where we are dry. Moisture return will be slow but we
will likely be in the 60s by Monday. Overall, no strong signal
for severe weather so if there is a threat it will likely not be
all that noticeable until we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered
showers and storms are possible this afternoon, but should
result in VFR cigs and maybe MVFR vsbys. These conditions will
be very short-lived mainly between 18z and 00z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Most areas received less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall in
the past 24 hours. The exception was right along the
Wapsipinicon River, where amounts between a half inch and one
inch were reported.

The lower portions of the Iowa and Cedar rivers continue to rise
with most sites expected to see Minor flooding. The crests will
occur within the next 2 days at locations along these rivers.
The Wapsi River near Anamosa and De Witt continue to rise with
routed flow working its way down from upstream. The river is
expected to remain below Moderate flood at Anamosa with a crest
of 17.9 feet late Wednesday evening. The Wapsi River near De
Witt has reached Major flood stage this morning and will slowly
rise the rest of this week to a crest of 13.3 feet early next
week. Rainfall will be spotty this afternoon and not anticipated
to impact the current forecasts.

On the Mississippi, upgraded New Boston to a Flood Warning given
increased confidence of the site reaching flood in 3 days due to
routed flow.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs
HYDROLOGY...Gross